– According to Bloomberg, the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market has reached near-record levels. This occurred following the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the key interest rate at its meeting on 17-18 September. The 40-day correlation coefficient between the 100 largest cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 index stands at approximately 0.67. A higher value (0.72) was reached only once, during Q2 2022.

Following the start of the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing, US stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) hit new highs, and on 23 September, bitcoin reached $64,765. Such a high direct correlation indicates that cryptocurrency prices are heavily dependent on macroeconomic indicators and the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Political factors also undoubtedly influence the cryptocurrency market. For instance, the positive trend in bitcoin and leading altcoins in recent days was supported by a statement from Vice President Kamala Harris, who said that, if elected President of the United States, she would promote increased investment in AI technologies and the cryptocurrency sector. Some experts have called Harris’s statement “encouraging” and “an important event for crypto and blockchain technologies.” However, others, such as venture capitalist Nic Carter, expressed the opposite view, claiming that Harris’s words are politically motivated and “mean nothing.”

– Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano and co-founder of Ethereum, believes that none of the US presidential candidates has a sufficient understanding of cryptocurrencies. For this reason, in Hoskinson's view, they will be unable to create favourable conditions for industry companies in the US. Donald Trump’s record-high staff turnover will prevent him from bringing the right people into government to foster the development of digital assets. Meanwhile, if Kamala Harris wins, she will continue Joe Biden’s anti-cryptocurrency policies. Hoskinson believes that local elections are far more important, as crypto companies can work more closely and effectively with senators.

– The Chinese government imposed a total ban on cryptocurrencies back in 2021. Beijing strictly limited the use of digital assets, prohibiting offshore exchanges from offering their services in the country. Authorities also banned all forms of cryptocurrency mining. Despite this, bitcoin miners from China still control a significant share of the global market. According to Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, over 55% of bitcoin’s hashrate is under the control of Chinese mining pools.

“Chinese mining pools manage 55% of the network, while American pools account for around 40%. US pools mainly serve institutional miners, whereas Chinese pools cater to smaller miners from Asia,” stated Ki Young Ju. Given this situation, the Chinese authorities’ stance on cryptocurrency could become even stricter. In 2025, the government plans to introduce amendments to its anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, extending them to cryptocurrency transactions.

– Analysts at 10x Research have identified two catalysts for a sharp rise in bitcoin. In their view, the trigger for a bull rally will be the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and the upcoming payments to creditors of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX. "The expected inflow of $5-8 billion will encourage investors," the experts believe.

Moreover, they suggest that "there is a chance of a sharp, ‘juicy’ rise in cryptocurrency, as the Federal Reserve appears to have raised the S&P 500 level at which it will intervene to protect investors, signalling the potential for further rate cuts. As a result, many investors are likely to reposition their portfolios into riskier assets by 2025," states the 10x Research report.

The analysts also point out that, historically, bitcoin has shown significant growth from October to March, and a similar trend could repeat, considering the previous market cycles of 2021 and 2017.

– According to Bernstein, there are as many as five reasons behind bitcoin's growth. 1. Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation hedging. Analysts note that, like gold, bitcoin becomes more attractive during times of fiscal excess, especially when US debt reaches $35 trillion. Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has risen by 45%, compared to gold's 27% increase. 2. Growing bipartisan support for cryptocurrencies, accompanied by statements from Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 3. The popularity of exchange-traded bitcoin ETFs. “Over the past 10 days, inflows into bitcoin ETFs have reached $800 million, despite volatile price movements,” Bernstein notes. The company expects that more banks, like Morgan Stanley, will also launch bitcoin ETFs, leading to further capital inflows. 4. Stability among miners after the April halving. According to Bernstein, network hashrate has recovered, indicating miner resilience, which further strengthens bitcoin's foundation. 5. Decreased selling pressure. Large sales of bitcoin by the US and German governments, as well as payments to Mt. Gox clients, have been absorbed by the market. Additionally, MicroStrategy has managed to raise $2.1 billion to purchase the leading cryptocurrency, bringing its holdings to 252,220 BTC, or 1.3% of the total supply.

– Legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, believes that in 2025, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio could rise by more than 400%. To justify his highly optimistic forecast, Brandt refers to a classic technical model – the "inverse head and shoulders." The pattern forms below resistance, known as the neckline. In theory, when resistance is broken, accompanied by rising trading volumes, the price increases by the maximum distance between the neckline and the deepest point of the head.

Applied to the BTC/GLD chart, the price of 1 bitcoin could reach the price of 123 ounces of gold as early as 2025, which is a 400% increase compared to 24 ounces as of 22 September 2024. This means that if physical gold remains at its current level of $2,630, the price of digital gold, according to Brandt’s theory, could soar to over $323,000. Supporting the idea that bitcoin could outperform the precious metal is its rapid adoption by institutional investors, as well as the launch of exchange-traded BTC ETFs, which have strengthened the asset's presence in their portfolios.

– One of the early bitcoin developers, Jeff Garzik, has created the Hemi Network protocol to connect the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains through tunnels. Cross-chain protocols (bridges) already exist and also serve to transfer assets between incompatible networks. However, the Hemi team claims that tunnels create a unique environment, allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum to "coexist" while avoiding the vulnerabilities inherent to bridges. Currently, the Hemi Network test is live, with the mainnet launch scheduled for Q4 of this year.

– Speaking at the TOKEN-2049 conference in Singapore, Jess Houlgrave, CEO of fintech company Reown (formerly WalletConnect), stated that in six years, cryptocurrency wallets will completely disappear and transform into "life centres." According to her, these will become universal digital archives where users can store not only digital assets but also a wide range of documents, from medical records to educational diplomas. The company’s head noted that the security of such archives will become much more reliable in a few years, allowing users to use them without fear of hacking.

– A few days ago, UFC fighter Renato Moicano called on the public to pay more attention to the first cryptocurrency. The Brazilian has repeatedly stated that bitcoin has long-term potential, serves as an alternative to traditional money, and can protect citizens from rising inflation. Given the economic uncertainty, including concerns around the US dollar, digital gold is becoming the best option for preserving savings. "Bitcoin is not just an investment," Renato Moicano said. "It's a way of life." (It’s worth noting that after his victory at UFC 300, the fighter publicly demanded that his reward be paid in BTC.)

– Macroeconomist Raoul Pal believes that everything is aligned for bitcoin's price to soar to $200,000 or more by the beginning of next year. In a video posted on his Real Vision channel, the former Goldman Sachs executive explained that the leading cryptocurrency tends to rise and fall in tandem with global liquidity cycles. He presented a chart of the GMI (Global Macro Investor) index, which shows an increase in global liquidity over the next three months, and analysed how this will impact BTC's price.

Pal also shared another chart showing that BTC is precisely repeating its price movement from January 2023 to March 2024, when the price surged by approximately 350% from $16,500 to $74,000. According to the economist, "Bitcoin is repeating what it did last year, almost exactly. So, we have the macro overlay, the Fed will continue [easing], other central banks will get involved as well. We have seasonality and the global liquidity cycle..." "This has to happen now," Raoul Pal concludes.