Where Futures Lies
Daily Futures Trading Strategy 29 May 2020
FUTURESCOIN IS GOING GLOBAL
WTI Crude, Gold, HSI, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
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E-Mini Dow
Futures were largely unchanged after the Labor Department’s data showed more than 2 million Americans sought unemployment benefits for the 10th straight week. A separate report showed GDP contracted at a bigger-than-expected 5.0% annualized rate in the first quarter, the deepest drop in output since the 2007-09 Great Recession.
However, analysts have warned that worsening ties between Washington and Beijing over the handling of the coronavirus outbreak and the new national security law in Hong Kong pose a major threat to the stock market’s strong recovery from the crash earlier this year.
The Trump administration is crafting a range of options, including targeted sanctions, new tariffs and further restrictions on Chinese companies, according to U.S. officials and people familiar with the discussions.
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Plan A : Short if market falls below 25420. Targets are 25375 and 25330.
Plan B : Cut above 25465.
Plan C : Attempt to long if market rebounds from 25335. Targets are 25380 and 25425.
Plan D : Cut below 25290.
E-Mini S&P 500
The Dow fell 147.63 points, or 0.58%, to close at 25,400.64. The S&P 500 dipped 0.21% to 3,029.73. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.46% to 9,368.99. Stocks closed lower after President Donald Trump said he would hold a news conference regarding China on Friday.
Trump’s announcement came after China's National People's Congress approved a national security bill for Hong Kong. The bill will bypass Hong Kong’s legislature, raising concerns over the longevity of Hong Kong’s “one party, two systems” principle, which allows additional freedoms mainland China does not have. That announcement sent stocks tumbling in the final hour of trading. Stocks had traded higher for most of the session as the latest unemployment data signaled the worst of the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic may be over.
Bank stocks fell broadly on Thursday, giving back some of their strong gains for the week. Citigroup fell 5.93% while JPMorgan Chase slid 1.49%. Bank of America dropped 4.31%.
International trade numbers, along with personal income data, are set for release Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak.
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Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 3029.25. Targets are 3053.25, 3076.25 and 3097.50.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 3029.25. Targets are 3003.25, 2980.25 and 2964.75.
E-Mini Nasdaq
Stock futures slipped early Friday morning as traders braced for an upcoming news conference on U.S.-China relations from President Donald Trump.
Dow futures dipped 127 points, implying a Friday opening dip of around 25 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also pointed to a near flat open for the two indexes.
Trump said Thursday afternoon he would hold the news conference, knocking stocks down from solid gains. That announcement came after China approved a national security bill for Hong Kong that experts warn could endanger the city’s “one party, two systems” principle. That principle allows for additional freedoms that mainland China residents don’t have.
Tensions between China and the U.S. have risen lately as Trump criticizes the Chinese government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak. U.S. lawmakers have also been critical of China increasing its stronghold over Hong Kong.
Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo, said he expects more rhetoric from the U.S. regarding Hong Kong and China, noting: “It could end up being a headwind once the market finishes pricing in all of this hopium.”
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Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 9443.25. Targets are 9470.25, 9507.75 and 9535.25.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 9443.25. Targets are 9410.25, 9379.50 and 9353.25.
HSI
Hong Kong shares ended lower in a volatile session on Thursday, as U.S.-China tensions escalated over a new security law, after Washington threatened to withdraw a special status given to the city.
The Hang Seng index closed down 0.7% at 23,132.76, after falling more than 2% mid-session to its lowest level since May 25.
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Plan A : Continue to short if market does not breach above 23005. Targets are 22920 and 23835. Cut above 23090.
Plan B : Attempt to long if market rebounds from 23005. Targets are 23090 and 23175. Cut below 22930.
Gold
Gold inched up on Friday and was on track for its second monthly gain as deteriorating U.S.-China ties in a world reeling from the coronavirus pandemic rattled investors and fueled demand for the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,719.47 per ounce by 0342 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,717.60.
However, the metal was down for the week, having dropped to a two-week low on Wednesday as easing lockdown measures around the world boosted hopes of an economic recovery.
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Plan A : Long if market retraced but supported firm above 1719.10. Targets are 1727.50 and 1732.90.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 1719.10. Targets are 1711.20 and 1705.70.
WTI Crude
Oil prices edged lower on Friday after U.S. inventory data showed lackluster fuel demand in the world’s largest oil consumer while worsening U.S.-China tensions weighed on global financial markets.
Brent crude slipped 25 cents, or 0.7%, to $35.04 a barrel by 0334 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $33.18 a barrel, down 53 cents, or 1.6%. Still, both contracts are set for a fifth weekly gain, helped by production cuts and optimism about demand recovery in other countries.
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Plan A : Long if market supported firm above 32.97. Targets are 33.42 and 31.02.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 32.97. Targets are 33.40 and 32.90.
Disclaimer: This information is intended to assist professional investors. News are credit courtesy of Reuters, Nasdaq.com, Bloomberg, CNN, Market Watch, FT.com, the Star online, forbes.com and CNBC. The information does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest or to provide management services and is subject to correctaysion, completion and amendment without notice.As with all investments, there are associated risks and you could lose money investing. Prior to making any investment, a prospective investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to evaluate independently the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
