Where Futures Lies
Daily Futures Trading Strategy 29 July 2020
FUTURESCOIN IS GOING GLOBAL
WTI Crude, Gold, HSI, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
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E-Mini Dow
U.S. stock index futures retreated on Tuesday as lawmakers geared up to debate a coronavirus relief deal to limit the economic damage from the pandemic, with investors also keeping an eye on quarterly earnings reports from Pfizer and McDonald’s.
Senate Republicans announced on Monday a $1 trillion aid package hammered out with the White House — four days before millions of Americans lose unemployment benefits — but the proposal sparked immediate opposition from both Democrats and Republicans.
Hopes of more government stimulus helped Wall Street’s main indexes close higher on Monday, with traders also tracking corporate America’s forecasts for a business recovery and signs of progress in developing a COVID-19 vaccine.
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Plan A : Continue to hold short as long as market stays below 26475. Targets are 26430 and 26385.
Plan B : Cut above 26520.
Plan C : Attempt long if market holds firm above 26235. Targets are 26280 and 26325.
Plan D : Cut below 26190.
E-Mini S&P 500
The Dow closed 205.49 points lower, or 0.77%, at 26,379.28. The S&P 500 dipped 0.65% to 3,218.44. The Nasdaq Composite slid 1.27% to 10,402.09. Stocks were mostly lower on Tuesday as traders searched for clues about the next coronavirus stimulus package.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell unveiled the Republican coronavirus relief plan Monday. The legislation would include relief for jobless Americans, another direct payment to individuals of up to $1,200, more Paycheck Protection Program small business loan funds, among other provisions. McConnell said the bill would set federal unemployment insurance at 70% of a worker’s previous wages, replacing the $600 per week which states stopped paying out this week. However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that Republicans are “not really ready to have a serious negotiation.”
Shares of the major tech companies were under pressure, giving back some of their solid gains from the previous session. Facebook fell 1.45%. Amazon, Netflix and Apple all dropped at least 1.40%. Companies that would benefit from the economy reopening rose broadly. Cruise operators Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line advanced 4.22% and 6.28%, respectively. American Airlines gained 3.34% and United rose 3.21%.
Stocks were also under pressure after the release of disappointing quarterly numbers from McDonald’s and 3M.
McDonald’s shares slid 2.5% after the fast-food giant posted a quarterly profit that missed analyst expectations along with a 30% drop in overall revenue. 3M, another Dow component, dropped 4.8% after its quarterly earnings and revenue were lower than expected.
Through Tuesday morning, more than 160 S&P 500 companies have reported calendar second-quarter earnings. Of those companies, 81% have beaten expectations, according to data from The Earnings Scout.
The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest decision on monetary policy. Boeing is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday along with General Electric and others.
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Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 3209.25. Targets are 3235.50, 3255.25 and 3280.75.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 3209.25. Targets are 3185.25, 3160.50 and 3130.75.
E-Mini Nasdaq
Stocks fell on Tuesday as tech shares were under pressure and lawmakers continued their debate over the next coronavirus relief package.
Shares of Amazon slipped 1.8% and Netflix declined by 1.4%. Alphabet shares fell 1.7%. Facebook shares dipped 1.5% and Apple closed 1.6% lower.
“All of the big momentum tech names are stalling out,” said Mark Tepper, CEO of Strategic Wealth Partners. “They’ve carried people’s portfolios and now they’re running out of steam.”
The bill comes as coronavirus cases continue to rise across the U.S. So far, more than 4.2 million infections have been confirmed along with at least 147,303 deaths in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University.
This is the busiest week of the corporate earnings season, with Apple and Amazon among the companies set to report later this week.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, which will be followed by an interest rate decision on Wednesday.
The FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0-0.25% at its last meeting in June as it continued to deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. economy. On Tuesday, the Fed announced it would extend its lending programs through the end of 2020.
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Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 10558.50. Targets are 10590.25, 10615.25 and 10660.75.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 10558.50. Targets are 10520.25, 10475.50 and 10420.75.
HSI
The Hong Kong stock market edged up on Tuesday, buoyed by hopes of economic and corporate earnings recovery, though concerns over a fresh wave of domestic coronavirus cases kept gains in check.
The Hang Seng index closed up 0.7% at 24,772.76.
Hong Kong stocks tracked the rise in regional stocks on Tuesday, led by technology stocks, as investors wagered on upbeat earnings reports due this week. The city’s new TECH index jumped 3.5% on Tuesday. The local market also benefitted from the gains in mainland Chinese A-shares, which rose most in a week on signs of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
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Plan A : Attempt short if market does not breach above 25060. Targets are 24985 and 24910. Cut above 25135.
Plan B : Attempt long if market does not falls below 24560 and rebounds. Targets are 24635 and 24710. Cut below 24485.
WTI Crude
Oil prices fell around 1% on Tuesday, as U.S. lawmakers prepared to wrangle over an economic stimulus package and investors worried about a rise in coronavirus cases worldwide.
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Plan A : Attempt sell if oil price trades below 41.6
Plan B : Cut above 42.0
Plan C : Consider buying if oil price retrace but holds firm above 41.0
Plan D : Cut below 40.7
Gold
Gold gained on Tuesday ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting which is expected to provide more monetary stimulus to support the coronavirus-hit economy, though bullion pulled back from an all-time high reached earlier.
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Plan A : Remain buy as long as gold price stays firm above 1937
Plan B : Exit below 1933
Plan C : Consider selling if gold price surges but fails to breach above 1962
Plan D : Cut above 1967
Disclaimer: This information is intended to assist professional investors. News are credit courtesy of Reuters, Nasdaq.com, Bloomberg, CNN, Market Watch, FT.com, the Star online, forbes.com and CNBC. The information does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest or to provide management services and is subject to correctaysion, completion and amendment without notice.As with all investments, there are associated risks and you could lose money investing. Prior to making any investment, a prospective investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to evaluate independently the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
