Where Futures Lies
Daily Futures Trading Strategy 1 September 2020
FUTURESCOIN IS GOING GLOBAL
WTI Crude, Gold, HSI, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
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E-Mini Dow
A gauge of global stocks pulled back from a record high on Monday but locked in a fifth straight month of gains while the dollar remained weak as investors adjust to the policy shift outlined by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 227.7 points, or 0.79%, to 28,426.17, the S&P 500 lost 8.04 points, or 0.23%, to 3,499.97, and the Nasdaq Composite added 79.82 points, or 0.68%, to 11,775.46.
U.S. stocks were mostly lower, with the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 in the red, while the Nasdaq rose solidly. The S&P gained more than 7% for the month to notch its best August since 1986 in what is traditionally a softer month for stock performance.
Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida on Monday expanded on Powell’s comments from last week, saying that with the U.S. central bank’s new policy view, a low rate of unemployment does not on its own trigger higher interest rates. Last week, the Fed said its new strategy plan is to use higher inflation when the economy is robust to offset the impact of periods of weaker prices.
Monday marked the first trading day for the revamped Dow, with Salesforce.com, Amgen Inc and Honeywell International Inc joining the 30-component index, replacing Exxon Mobil Corp, Pfizer Inc and Raytheon Technologies Corp. Honeywell ended the session lower while a move higher late in the day pushed Salesforce and Amgen to the plus side.
The dollar edged lower against a basket of major currencies on the day and suffered a fourth straight monthly decline.
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Plan A : Short if market failed to support above 28413. Targets are 28380, 28328 and 28291.
Plan B : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 28413. Targets are 28448, 28491 and 28550.
E-Mini S&P 500
The Dow dropped 223.82 points, or 0.8%, to 28,430.05. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 3,500.31. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.7% to 11,775.46. Stocks posted a mixed performance on Monday as traders wrapped up the market's best August in more than 30 years.
The S&P 500 rose more than 7% in August, along with the Dow. It was the best August for the Dow since 1984 and the best August for the S&P 500 since 1986. This month’s gains have pushed the S&P 500 to record levels, officially confirming a new bull market has started. The August rally built on the market’s sharp rebound off the March 23 lows.
Apple and Tesla shares rose 3% and 12%, respectively, after their stock splits took effect on Monday. Both stocks contributed to the Nasdaq’s sharp gains on Monday. Banks, meanwhile, fell broadly as yields declined. JPMorgan Chase dropped 2.5% while Citigroup slid 2.2%.
Data on manufacturing activity and construction spending are set for release Tuesday.
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Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 3497. Targets are 3518, 3529 and 3549.
Plan B : Short if market failed to 3497. Targets are 3475, 3449 and 3420.
E-Mini Nasdaq
Stock futures were flat in overnight trading on Monday after Wall Street notched its fifth consecutive month of gains.
Shares of Zoom video jumped more than 17% during extended trading after reporting another blowout quarter. The video conferencing company’s revenue more than quadrupled in the fiscal second quarter compared to a year ago.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 9.6% in August, posting its best monthly performance since 2000.
Investors are awaiting a key jobs report on Friday, which is forecast to show payrolls continued to rebound in August. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast that 1.255 million jobs were created in August.
“With regard to US jobs, it’s important to keep in mind that the Fed’s new inflation target policy may impact how the market receives this news,” Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist, said in a note.
In a major policy shift, the Federal Reserve announced last week it will allow inflation and employment to run higher than its target before it considers raising interest rates.
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Plan A : Short if market failed to support above 12117. Targets are 12080, 12030 and 11989.
Plan B : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 12117. Targets are 12145, 12171 and 12192.
HSI
Hong Kong stocks reversed earlier gains to end lower on Monday, weighed down by financial and consumer staples firms.
At the close of trade, the Hang Seng index was down 245.01 points, or 0.96%, at 25,177.05. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index fell 1.88% to 9,991.48.
The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares rose 0.9%, while the IT sector dipped 0.91%, and the property sector slipped 0.67%.
The top gainer on the Hang Seng was Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd, which gained 4.07%, while the biggest loser was China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd, which fell 4.02%.
Heavyweight banking shares retreated, after China’s five largest state-owned banks reported their biggest profit falls in at least a decade and an increase in soured loans when announcing their half-year results on Sunday and last week.
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Plan A : Attempt short if market stays below 25164. Targets are 25057 and 24950.
Plan B : Consider long if market retraced and stayed firmly above 24960. Targets are 25075 and 25190.
WTI Crude
Oil prices nudged up on Monday, with Brent futures set to post a fifth straight monthly gain, as global stimulus measures underpin prices even as demand struggles to return to pre-COVID levels in a well supplied market.
Brent crude futures for November were unchanged at $45.81 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $43.05 a barrel, up 8 cents.
WTI is on track for a fourth monthly rise, reaching $43.78 a barrel on Aug. 26 when Hurricane Laura struck.
Oil markets largely shrugged off the hurricane’s impact on Friday as energy companies continued efforts to restore operations at U.S. Gulf Coast offshore platforms and refineries shut before the storm.
A weak U.S. dollar has supported oil prices even though fuel demand has struggled to recover amid the coronavirus pandemic and supplies remain excessive, although crude may face hurdles going forward, analysts said.
China’s crude imports in September are set to fall for the first time in five months as record volumes of crude are stored-in and outside of the world’s largest importer, data from Refinitiv and Vortexa showed.
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Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 42.83. Targets are 43.35, 43.90 and 44.38.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 42.83. Targets are 42.45, 41.91 and 41.22.
Gold
Gold prices rose on Monday to their highest level in nearly two weeks, as demand was boosted by a weaker dollar and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s new policy framework suggested that interest rates would remain low for some time.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,971.68 per ounce by 0043 GMT, after hitting its highest since Aug. 19 at $1,976 in early Asian trade. However, gold is down nearly 0.2% so far this month.
U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,982.50.
Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
The dollar index fell 0.2% and was on track for its fourth consecutive monthly decline.
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Plan A : Short if market failed to support above 1981.50. Targets are 1972.50, 1965.20 and 1955.70.
Plan B : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 1981.50. Targets are 1989.20, 1996.10 and 2005.50.
Disclaimer: This information is intended to assist professional investors. News are credit courtesy of Reuters, Nasdaq.com, Bloomberg, CNN, Market Watch, FT.com, the Star online, forbes.com and CNBC. The information does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest or to provide management services and is subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice.As with all investments, there are associated risks and you could lose money investing. Prior to making any investment, a prospective investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to evaluate independently the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
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Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
