Where Futures Lies
Daily Futures Trading Strategy 30 September 2020
FUTURESCOIN IS GOING GLOBAL
WTI Crude, Gold, HSI, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
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E-Mini Dow
Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak as investors took money off the table hours before the first U.S. presidential debate.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 131.4 points, or 0.48%, to 27,452.66, the S&P 500 lost 16.13 points, or 0.48%, to 3,335.47 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 32.28 points, or 0.29%, to 11,085.25.
All three major U.S. stock indexes lost ground. In a reversal from Monday, market leaders Apple Inc , Microsoft Corp and Amazon.com weighed heaviest on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
Market participants eyed the first head-to-head showdown between Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden in a debate expected to air from Cleveland Tuesday evening.
In the closing days of September and the second quarter, the major indexes were on track for their first monthly declines since March, when mandated shutdowns slammed the economy.
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Plan A : Long if market retraced and supported firm above 27389. Targets are 27425, 27470 and 27511.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 27389. Targets are 27345, 27310 and 27269.
E-Mini S&P 500
Tuesday’s sell-off after a three-day bounce signals continued stock market volatility, and the possibility that the correction is not yet over.
The S&P 500 was up, down, sideways and down again Tuesday, finishing the day at 3,335. It had declined amid new concerns about the coronavirus spreading in New York and then ended the day a half percent lower ahead of Tuesday evening’s potentially pivotal presidential debate.
Among 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, all but communication services closed in the red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage losses.
Despite September’s expected loss, the S&P and the Nasdaq were on course for their best two-quarter winning streaks since 2009 and 2000, respectively.
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Plan A : Short if market failed to support above 3327. Targets are 3305, 3274 and 3250.
Plan B : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 3327. Targets are 3345, 3358 and 3375.
E-Mini Nasdaq
U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday night as traders digested the first U.S. presidential debate.
Positive data regarding a potential coronavirus treatment from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals kept the losses in check.
Futures rose slightly during the debate, but quickly gave up that ground as the debate ended. It wasn’t clear whether the gyrations were related to the contentious comments being traded back and forth by the candidates. Traders are hoping that the start of the debate process will lead to a clear winner on Election Day and not a drawn-out electoral process that could hit the market.
The major averages snapped a three-day winning streak earlier in the day, with the Dow falling more than 100 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 also closed 0.5% lower and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.3%. Those losses came amid concerns over a virus resurgence. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city’s daily positive rate of coronavirus tests is back above 3% for the first time in months.
“Coronavirus infection rates are rising in Europe and the United States as children return to school,” Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, wrote in a note. “We expect the United States to continue its modest pace of economic improvement, though virus growth and a softer labor market are threats.”
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Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 11259. Targets are 11287, 11320 and 11351.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 11259. Targets are 11210, 11180 and 11120.
HSI
Hong Kong stocks fell on Tuesday as growing concerns over the coronavirus pandemic outweighed China recovery optimism.
The Hang Seng index fell 0.9% to 23,275.53, while the China Enterprises Index dropped 1.1% to 9,281.52 points.
The market rose in early trading on China recovery hopes. China’s factory activity likely expanded at a slightly faster pace in September, a Reuters poll showed.
But stocks erased gains as investors weighed China growth optimism against pandemic threats. Compared with mainland China, Hong Kong is more open, thus more vulnerable to global resurgence.
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Plan A : Long if market supported firm above 23526. Targets are 23601 and 23675.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 23526. Targets are 23450 and 23389.
WTI Crude
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a draw in crude oil inventories of 831,000 barrels for the week ending September 25 - but this draw was more than offset by a build in gasoline inventories.
Oil prices were trading down sharply on Tuesday afternoon before the API’s data release as the market continues to be spooked by the rising number of coronavirus cases around the world - a factor that could lead to decreased movements and industrial activity around the world, and ultimately, to decreased oil demand.
In the hours leading up to Tuesday’s data release, at 12:44 pm EDT, WTI had fallen by $2.00 (-4.93%) to $38.60, down $1 per barrel on the week. The Brent crude benchmark had fallen by $1.82 at that time (-4.29%) to $40.61.
Oil production in the United States fell during the last week, and it is still down significantly from a high of 13.1 million bpd on March 13. U.S. oil production currently sits at 10.7 million bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration - 2.4 million bpd under those March highs.
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Plan A : Long if market supported firm above 39.21. Targets are 39.56, 39.85 and 40.18.
Plan B : Short if market rebounded and resisted around 39.21. Targets are 38.97 38.69, 38.37.
Gold
Price of bullion rose again on Tuesday, nearing its highest in almost a week, as investors await the first US presidential debate and further developments on a new coronavirus relief bill.
Spot gold advanced 0.8% to $1,896.80 per ounce by 2 p.m. EDT, having briefly touched the $1,900 per ounce mark earlier in the session. US gold futures also gained 1.1%, trading at $1,903.40 per ounce on the Comex in New York.
Meanwhile, the US dollar was down 0.4% against a basket of other major currencies ahead of Tuesday’s debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden.
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Plan A : Long if market supported firm above 1886.10. Targets are 1895.20, 1907.10 and 1915.50.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 1886.10. Targets are 1875.20, 1862.30 and 1850.50.
Disclaimer: This information is intended to assist professional investors. News are credit courtesy of Reuters, Nasdaq.com, Bloomberg, CNN, Market Watch, FT.com, the Star online, forbes.com, mining.com and CNBC. The information does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest or to provide management services and is subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice.As with all investments, there are associated risks and you could lose money investing. Prior to making any investment, a prospective investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to evaluate independently the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
