Where Futures Lies
Daily Futures Trading Strategy 2 October 2020
FUTURESCOIN IS GOING GLOBAL
WTI Crude, Gold, HSI, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
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E-Mini Dow
Wall Street closed higher at the end of a whipsaw session on Thursday as investors juggled hopeful and pessimistic news on the progress of stimulus talks Washington amid signs of waning momentum of economic recovery from the pandemic recession, now entering its ninth month.
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq in the lead and the Dow seeing the smallest gain.
A spate of data, including jobless claims and consumer spending, suggested that the plodding economic recovery could be losing steam.
Investors now look to the Labor Department’s employment report expected Friday to further gauge the economy’s progress.
In negotiations for a new pandemic relief deal, the White House countered House Democrats’ $2.2 trillion package with a $1.5 trillion-plus proposal.
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Plan A : Short if market rebounded and failed to support above 27348. Targets are 27300, 27261 and 27210.
Plan B : Long only if market stablized above 27348. Targets are 27380, 27402 and 27435.
E-Mini S&P 500
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, after both the Dow and S&P 500 spent some of the session in negative territory.
The Dow closed 35 points higher for a gain of 0.1%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative out-performer, gaining 1.4%.
On Friday investors will get a read on the state of the ongoing economic recovery when September’s jobs report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The final jobs report ahead of the election is expected to show a slowdown from August’s levels. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are expecting 800,000 non-farm payrolls added, down from 1.37 million in August.
Stocks have staged a record rebound since the economic shutdown sent stocks tumbling in March. But the major averages all finished September lower, snapping a five-month win streak, as doubts emerge about the pace and breadth of the recovery.
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Plan A : Long if market stabilized and supported firm above 3323. Targets are 3337, 3350 and 3370.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 3323. Targets are 3299, 3275 and 3240.
E-Mini Nasdaq
Stock futures plunged in early morning trading on Friday after President Donald Trump said he tested positive for the coronavirus.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week but remained at recession levels, while personal income dropped in August, underscoring the need for another government rescue package for businesses and the unemployed.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved a $2.2 trillion Democratic plan for fresh relief from the coronavirus pandemic, though objections from the White House and top Republicans are likely to doom it in the Senate.
President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign on Thursday rejected calls for new rules to govern the next two debates between him and Democratic challenger Joe Biden, after a first match-up marred by constant interruptions and outbursts.
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Plan A : Long if market supported firm above 11386. Targets are 11413, 11450 and 11492.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 11386. Targets are 11345, 11310 and 11260.
WTI Crude
Oil prices took another dive on Thursday, with the price of WTI falling more than 6% by late morning as OPEC’s production increased in September over August.
Spot prices for WTI had fallen by 6.04% to $37.79 by 11:28 a.m. EDT, while Brent had dropped 5.22% to $40.09.
The catalyst for this morning’s price drop is OPEC+’s September seaborne exports, which jumped to 22.84 million barrels per day from the 22.11 that the cartel exported by sea in August.
A Reuters survey shows that OPEC’s production for September was up 160,000 bpd from the previous month. OPEC is still in compliance. The culprits for this production increase is mostly Iran and Libya, both of whom are exempt from the production quotas.
The market is interpreting this production increase as a viable threat to any oil market re-balancing.
Further pressuring oil prices is the ever-present demand question—a metric that has been constantly pushed down by the pandemic. Bearish demand factors include another round of major airline layoffs affecting tens of thousands of employees, an impromptu lockdown of Madrid due to increasing coronavirus cases, and disappointing vaccine news.
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Plan A : Long if market rebounded and stabilized above 38.55. Targets are 39.06 and 39.70.
Plan B : Short if market rebounded and failed to support above 38.55. Targets are 38.08 and 37.65.
Gold
Gold prices were on track for their best week in nearly two months as renewed hopes for a new round of fiscal stimulus from Washington cheered investors, despite a slight easing on the day due to an uptick in the U.S. dollar.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,901.98 per ounce by 0034 GMT on Friday, after rising 1% to a 1-1/2-week high of $1,911.66 in the previous session.
Gold has gained more than 2% so far this week, its biggest weekly percentage gain since week ended August 7.
U.S. gold futures were down 0.4% at $1,909.20.
The dollar index rose 0.1% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
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Plan A : Long if market stabilized above 1909.50. Targets are 1916.20 and 1927.90.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 1909.50. Targets are 1901.10 and 1890.50.
Disclaimer: This information is intended to assist professional investors. News are credit courtesy of Reuters, Nasdaq.com, Bloomberg, CNN, Market Watch, FT.com, the Star online, forbes.com, mining.com and CNBC. The information does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest or to provide management services and is subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice.As with all investments, there are associated risks and you could lose money investing. Prior to making any investment, a prospective investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to evaluate independently the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
