FUTURESCOIN IS GOING GLOBAL
Corporate profits are performing at a record pace relative to expectations, but investors so far seem unimpressed. And the few companies that are missing expectations are being severely punished.
Third-quarter earnings have beaten Wall Street bottom-line expectations at about an 84% pace, something unseen in the time most firms have been tracking the data. With 27% of the S&P 500 reporting, the beat level for revenues is about same, at 81%, according to FactSet.
That decline compares to a typical drop of 2.2%. And the sour mood wasn’t confined to those firms that posted worse-than-expected returns.
Bank of America strategists looked at the strange earnings season reaction through a slightly different lens, comparing the near-term returns to the performance of the S&P 500. In that sense, misses actually have been being rewarded even better than beats, leading to comparisons to the tech bubble of the late 20th century that eventually imploded in the early 2000s.
In total, market performance has been volatile but still positive through the nascent third quarter, with the S&P 500 up about 1.4% and the Dow around flat.
The S&P 500 will see 40% of its companies report this week.
Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 3391. Targets are 3408, 3423 and 3440.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 3391. Targets are 3367, 3340 and 3311.
Stocks fell sharply on Monday as coronavirus infections jumped and negotiations for a fiscal stimulus package before the election stalled once again.
The Dow closed 650.19 points lower, or 2.3%, at 27,685.38. The S&P 500 slid 1.9% to 3,400.97 and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.6% to 11,358.94.
The decline came as data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed daily coronavirus cases in the U.S. have risen by an average of 68,767 over the past seven days, a record. On Sunday alone, more than 60,000 cases were reported. The country saw more than 83,000 new infections on both Friday and Saturday after outbreaks in Sun Belt states, surpassing a previous record of roughly 77,300 cases set in July.
Optimism also dimmed over the White House and Republicans striking a stimulus deal with Democrats before the election. White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday that talks had slowed down, but noted they are still ongoing.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a statement that she and the Democrats “have stressed the importance of testing, but the Administration has never followed through. The Republicans’ continued surrender to the virus – particularly amid the recent wave of cases – is official malfeasance.”
This week marks the last week of October and the final trading period before Nov. 3. Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a sizable lead over President Donald Trump in national polls, although the gap has narrowed slightly as of late.
Plan A : Long if market doesn't retrace much and supported firm above 11567. Targets are 11596, 11625 and 11662.
Plan B : Short if market failed to support above 11567. Targets are 11527, 11480 and 11438.