STATE OF THE MARKETS

Markets in pre-holidays rebalancing. US equities mostly higher, with Dow surged 114.32 points (+0.38%) and S&P500 edged up 2.75 points (+0.07%) while Nasdaq fell 36.80 points (-0.29%) as players digest the mixed reports on the economy. Hedging and profit taking dominated the day as traders and investors rebalance their portfolio before the holidays. Shares in small caps stocks continued to be favored when bond was in the back burner with the 10Y yield climbed closer to 1%.

Crude staged a rebound, climbing sharply to close $48.12/barrel when reports from EIA showed a reduction in US inventories. Gold remained well bid to close around $1,872.08 to remain in an uptrend as investors continue to weigh markets conditions and outlook for 2021.

In the FX space,  the greenback was seen retreated to the back seat in the short-term but remain supported in the medium term as bears and bulls battled for the 90 handle. Sterling took the helm of demand in the short and medium term on the news that UK and EU, once again, are coming close to a trade deal agreement. 

Note: State of the Markets report is taking a break for Christmas and won’t be published for Thursday and Friday. Report will resume for Monday, Dec 28.

OUR PICK – EUR/NZD

Capital flows to Europe for 2021. Recent CFTC positioning revealed that more capital flows to Europe than any other developed nations in the G8 space at the expense of commodity currencies. This is consistent with the demand level in the long and medium term accounts except for the Aussie.  Euro was at the peak in the G8 currencies sentiments on Tuesday and took a pullback on Wednesday in the medium term accounts; while long term remained constant on Kiwi.

Short term, however, remained depressed and there is still a risk for the pair to retest the weekly pivot around 1.7150. Aggressive trader may long on spot and cut the losses short if the exchange rate closed below 1.7150 on the daily with 1.7100 as the hard stop. Risk averse traders may want to wait until it moves back up above the red dotted resistance line before initiating any longs with 1.7140 stop. Please take note that this pair is having a negative correlation with our recent pick NZD/USD. Please manage your risk exposure accordingly if you take this trade.

Disclaimer:

This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.