STATE OF THE MARKETS

Dollar higher on falling volume. US Dollar continue to climb higher as the month come to an end on the lightest volume for the past three months. Dollar Index (DXY) spot and futures (DX) is trading circa 93.40s region as of this writing with falling futures volume for the month. April is usually the worst month for the Greenback, but it might be different this time, with the current state of the equities market, that is in the limbo.

All three major indexes, Dow (-0.31%), Nasdaq (-0.11%), and S&P500 (-0.32%) were in the red, as small cap Russel (+1.72%) advanced higher. The benchmark 10Y yield spiked to 1.78% before closed lower, circa 1.71%, forming a bearish pin bar as more than $157 billion worth of block orders swept the futures market.

Crude was under selling pressure Tuesday, but remain bid above $60.50/bl as markets await the OPEC+ meeting that is expected to retain current production quota in the light of demand concerns for Europe and South Asia. Gold was under selling climax as more than 200K contracts hit the futures market, sending the yellow metal back to the month’s low circa $1,680/oz; while the Greenback advanced further on light volume.

King Dollar regained the reign in the short term, while made way for Sterling in the medium term. A sudden spike of demand for Swiss over Gold was seen as New York opened on Tuesday, as the safe haven normalized across the board with Yen. High beta commodity currency continue to gain traction in demand as markets await Biden’s proposal on new US infrastructure stimulus plan on Wednesday.

OUR PICK – XAG/USD

Money flow turned positive. Despite price making new low on silver, money flows have been bullish and turned positive last week, suggesting the short term low is here. The same can be said about gold, that despite the heavy selling volume, price didn’t make a new low, but only come to the month’s low. April being the worst month for USD versus CAD, in 2/3 of the time in 25 years, we might see some bulls light in the precious metal. Long term, there is still chance for the metal to go lower, testing $23.00 if price failed below $25.00. If history repeat itself, then we might also see a medium term top in USD/JPY suggesting Yen strength is around the corner.

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