STATE OF THE MARKETS

Dollar buoyed amid safe haven flows. While US stocks closed mixed, with Dow (-0.60%), S&P (-0.20%) pared back gains and only Nasdaq (+0.17%) finished in the green; block orders of 5Y US bonds worth almost $450 billion in the futures market was snapped, sending its yields from the high of 0.93% to the low of 0.79% on Tuesday. Similarly the 10Y benchmark, fell to 1.35%, the lowest in 19 weeks, which all in all helped buoy the greenback.

In the commodities market, crude futures were sold off as news hit the wires that UAE might lead in increasing supplies without any OPEC agreement, after the fall out with Saudi Arabia. The black gold settled below $73.50/bl as investors took profits off the table. Gold was on firm bids, as it closed above $1,796.50/oz ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

In the FX space, Dollar regained short term demand, while being retained in medium to long term accounts, but failed to overbid Yen dan Kiwi. Traders and investors seemed more cautious ahead of the FOMC minutes and US data as Swiss backed in demand for medium to long term accounts. It seems that markets are expecting more hawkish minutes but data were not strong enough for Feds to move anytime sooner.

OUR PICK – XAG/USD

As Feds tangled between inflation and bond tapering. While gold finished higher Tuesday, amid investors concerns that the Fed is not able to raise rates sooner, silver finished lower. Indeed as of this writing, silver is hovering above the convergence of it’s 1Y, 6M, 4M and 3M volume point of control, circa 26.00 – 26.20, which most likely be defended shall FOMC minutes showed a divergence of views in rate hike. As Feds is data dependent, any negative surprise in US data which prevents Fed from moving sooner will favor the precious metal complex. Risk remains, however, for the metal to retest the lower bound of it’s ascending channel, circa $25.50