STATE OF THE MARKETS
Equities rallied as risk appetite returned. European and US equities rallied on Wednesday after reports of UAE willingness to ramp up oil production in the wake of the energy crisis amid Russia-Ukraine conflict. FTSE (+3.25%), DAX (+7.92%), Stoxx (+4.68%), Dow (+2.00%), S&P (+2.57%) and Nasdaq (+3.59%) rebounded as funds flowed out of safety. Yields of various maturities continue to climb amid bond sell off for the past three days, with the 10Y benchmark back at 1.95% as Dollar dropped to the 98 handle.
In the commodities market, the news on UAE sent crude lower by more than 12% and settled around $107.30/bl as New York closed. Gold eased off on profit taking and settled around $1,991.30/oz while iron ore stalled around $161/tn waiting for new catalysts.
In the FX space, Aussie and Kiwi continue to reign alongside King Dollar in the medium and long term accounts while Sterling was sent to the back burner. Euro rebounded to demand as Dollar, Kiwi and Yen eased in the short term accounts.
On Thursday, markets look for earnings reports from Oracle (ORCL), JD.com (JD), Rivian (RIVN), Wheaton (WPM), Ulta Beauty (ULTA) and DocuSign (DOCU) as well as the latest US jobless claims, productivity and costs figures to assess the health of the US economy.
OUR PICK – AUD/NZD
Risk return may favor Kiwi over Aussie. We expect stocks to rally on short-covering, while risk return will favor high yielding currencies given the overstretched commodities. Highest yielding among G8, our sentiment model points to Kiwi seeing further rally on Aussie in the medium and long term. Short term rebound is an opportunity to position some shorts in our view.
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