STATE OF THE MARKETS

Stocks jumped as the Dollar eased. US stocks jumped higher on Thursday after a series of better than expected economic data showing that recession might be mild in the making. Q2 GDP contracted only -0.6%, below an earlier read of -0.9%, while Initial Jobless Claims fell to 243k, below estimates of 255K and Continuing Claims fell 19k. Nasdaq (+1.67%) jumped the most, followed by Russell (+1.52%), S&P (+1.41%) and Dow (+0.98%) as the Dollar index drifted lower to retest the 108 handle. 

Flight to safety was noted as bonds jumped in price, sending yields lower, with the shorter 2Y settled at 3.37% and the benchmark 10Y settled at 3.03%.

In the commodity markets, crude fell lower on profit taking ahead of the weekend as short term traders settled the black gold around $92.85/bl as New York closed. Gold remained on firm bids as Dollar weakness helped buoy the precious metal above $1758.35/oz while iron ore drifted lower on demand concerns. The commodity settled around $105.35/tn as New York closed.

In the FX space, Aussies continue to hold the helm of demand across all horizons while demand for safe-haven Swiss returns in the short and medium term accounts. Yen, Sterling and Euro were unchanged in the long and medium term accounts.

On Friday, traders may look to cash some profits ahead of the weekend as the calendar is light with only earnings reports from Jinko Solar (JKS) and China Petroleum and Chemicals (SNP) as well as the latest numbers on US personal income and expenses as well as Michigan consumer sentiments.

OUR PICK – No New Picks

No new picks going into the weekend. Long term investors continue to exit the equities markets despite the rally. $3.4 billion flowed out of equities and another $6.7 billion out of taxable bonds funds while short term money markets received inflows of a little more than $13 billion. It seemed to us that flight to safety was the order of the week and this might reflect soon in demand for safe-haven Yen and Swiss.

Trades updates: 

Equities: VIPS (36% undervalued with 4.73 z-score), CRON (24% undervalued with 27.82 z-score), and AUY (22% undervalued, 2.43% yields) jumped higher this week, while M (48% undervalued, 3.31% yields),  T (9% undervalued, 6.16% yields) and WBA (35% undervalued, 5.22% yields) pulled back.

FX & Commodities: USD/JPY sell stop was filled and reached short term TP1; and we remain bearish on USD/CAD, NZD/JPY,  GBP/JPY and NZD/CHF while bullish on Crude Oil.

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