STATE OF THE MARKETS

Strong jobs reports weigh on stocks. US stocks erased earlier gains on Thursday, after reports of stronger than expected jobs market. Initial and continuing claims were reduced far less than expected, sending signs of a strong labor market that would make inflation stickier. The tech-laden Nasdaq (-2.84%) fell the most, followed by the small cap Russell (-2.35%), S&P (-2.11%) and Dow (-1.54%) as the Dollar continued to fall on profit taking.

At writing, the Dollar index fell below the 112 handle and is flirting with the 111.80 barrier as yields rebounded. The 10Y benchmark rebounded back to 3.79% while the 30Y mortgage rates briefly jumped past 7% – the highest since 2001.

In the commodity markets, crude pulled lower as traders weighed potential cut in OPEC+ meeting next week on worsening economic outlook. The black gold was little changed, settled around $81.20/bl as New York closed. Dollar weakness, sent gold higher as bidders emerged to settle the precious metal around $1,660.30/oz while iron ore stalled at $98.50/tn waiting for the next catalysts.

In the FX space, short term traders continue to bid Sterling and Euro alongside Swiss and Dollar while dumping Loonie, Aussie and Yen. Yen reverted back to offer across the board in more demand of Dollar, Swiss, Sterling and Euro. Sentiments are mixed.

On Friday, markets expect more profit taking as the month comes to an end while waiting for earnings releases from Carnival Cruise (CCL) and GigaCloud Tech (GCT) as well as the latest PMI figures and personal income and expenditures to gauge consumer demand and sentiments.

OUR PICK – No New Picks

No new picks going into the weekend. US equities (-$7 billion) continue to report outflows alongside taxable bonds (-$15 billion) while higher rates in the short term money markets (+$7 billion) continue to attract funds. It’s a bit unusual that stocks, bonds and the Dollar were sold off at the same time and we know the most likely assets to benefit are commodities. We noticed crude and gold were not the major beneficiaries as the two commodities have been in tight range bound but soybean and corn have received massive inflows lately. Are markets expecting a food crisis soon?

Trades updates: 

Equities: While T (7% undervalued, 7.01% yields), VIPS (38% undervalued with 4.73 z-score) and WBA (34% undervalued, 5.78% yields) all tumbled; CRON (25% undervalued with 27.82 z-score) and gold miner AUY (22% undervalued, 2.72% yields) rebounded higher and M (44% undervalued, 3.81% yields) was little changed by the recent stock rout.

FX & Commodities:  GBP/JPY has reached medium term TP1 before stopping out, GBP/AUD turned around and stopped out, and we remain bearish silver and crude oil.

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Disclaimer:

This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.