Investors are getting ready to digest another critical jobs report that will heavily shape whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates when its policy makers meet in mid-December. With speeches from several Fed officials suggesting a low bar for a December hike, economists say job gains above 150,000 in October and November would be sufficient for the central bank to lift benchmark borrowing costs from near zero. The report, which is also expected to show an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1%, will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Economy
The Chinese market bull came bucking out of the pen again today, recording a third consecutive session of big gains in an otherwise muddled trading day before U.S. jobs data. Just 24 hours after the Shanghai Composite re-entered "bull market" territory by gaining 20% since an August low, the index closed up another 1.9%, while the tech-heavy Shenzhen Composite added 2.8%. This week, the indices have gained 6.2% and 6.8%, respectively.
Meanwhile, China will lift a four-month ban on new stock listings after it "improves" relevant policies, the Xinhua News Agency reported, citing the country's securities regulator. Although Xinhua offered no further details, local media suggested that 28 IPOs that had been approved but were suspended would materialize by the end of the year. China imposed the ban on IPOs in early July after the country's stock market lost over 40% in a gigantic summer rout.
The presidents of China and Taiwan, Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou, will meet in Singapore tomorrow, marking the first talks between leaders of the two neighbors in almost seven decades. The historic event is seen as a breakthrough for a relationship that has been strained since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. What's on the menu? Xi and Ma are set to discuss unification, cross straits relations, sovereignty and the Taiwan presidential elections.
Industrial output in Germany declined for the second straight month in September as a slowdown in China and other emerging markets took its toll. Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 1.1% from August, when it declined a revised 0.6%. Combined with September's sharp decline in industrial orders, the fall in output feeds speculation that the German economy may lose steam by the end of the year.
Greece's parliament has approved a bill with reforms prescribed by the country's international lenders, ahead of a eurozone finance ministers meeting on Monday that will decide if Athens qualifies for fresh bailout funds. Passing the bill was crucial, but there are still several issues holding up a review that can unlock a sub-tranche of an initial €26B installment. Those include effective mechanisms for Greece's troubled banks, such as non-performing loans and mortgages, and a VAT tax on private education.
Stocks
BlackBerry will begin shipping its first Android powered smartphone today, called the Priv, marking the fourth new device released under the leadership of CEO John Chen. The device is priced at a steep $899 (unsubsidized) and includes a 5'4" curved display, an 18 MP dual-flash camera and a slide out physical QWERTY keyboard. A little too late? According to IDC, the once-dominant smartphone maker doesn't even hold 1% of the world-wide market now. BBRY shares -31% YTD.
A California federal judge has established a trial date of June 20, 2016 for a class-action lawsuit that could help decide the employment status of Uber (Pending:UBER) drivers, and set a precedent across the nation. The case, O'Connor v. Uber, concerns the ride service's classification of drivers as independent contractors rather than employees. The plaintiffs say that because Uber controls things like ride prices and performance standards, they should be considered employees and eligible for reimbursement of expenses.
The boycott of Takata airbags has spread to Toyota (NYSE:TM), further deepening the safety scandal that has engulfed the Japanese air bag supplier. The move comes after several other automakers ditched Takata's (OTCPK:TKTDY) inflators, which have led to the recall of tens of millions of cars and at least eight deaths. Toyota also unveiled plans to invest $1B over the next five years to form a research institute in Silicon Valley. The compound will focus on artificial intelligence and robotics (self-driving ambitions?).
Canada's new government backs TransCanada's (NYSE:TRP) Keystone XL pipeline, but does not want the project - opposed by environmentalists - to spoil relations with the U.S., Foreign Minister Stephane Dion said on Thursday. The statement comes after Washington formally denied a request to pause a review of the oil pipeline, which has so far taken more than seven years to complete. President Obama is widely expected to veto Keystone XL before he leaves office in early 2017.
An iron ore tailings dam owned by a joint venture between BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Vale (NYSE:VALE) burst in southeast Brazil late Thursday, flooding a valley and devastating a rural community. A local hospital confirms one death, while a mining workers union claims at least 15 fatalities. The extent of damage is sure to place a spotlight on an operation that produced 25M metric tons of iron ore pellets last year; an extended stoppage would help reduce a global iron ore glut that has pushed down prices by 32% YTD. BHP -4.7%; VALE -5.3% premarket.
Talk about a commodities slump...ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), the world's largest steel maker, reported a $711M loss for the third quarter, citing low demand and falling prices. In a news release, the company said that customers were hesitating to buy its products and that "unsustainably low export prices from China," had hurt its bottom line. ArcelorMittal has now cut its guidance for full-year EBITDA to between $5.2B-$5.4B from a previous range of $6B-$7B and suspended its dividend.
The NY Attorney General's office has launched a sweeping investigation of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) to determine whether misled the public and shareholders about the risks of climate change, sources told The NY Times. The report also outlines that Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) has been under investigation by the AG for two years over whether it properly disclosed financial risks related to climate change. Exxon has denied the allegations and said it funded mainstream climate science since the 1970s. BTU -1.2% premarket.
In addition to providing tax benefits, a Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) merger with Allergan (NYSE:AGN) could bolster the U.S. drugmaker's growth prospects should it decide to sell or spin off its off-patent portfolio. Many Wall Street analysts believe Pfizer will decide to split late next year, as the company already treats its "established products" division and its "innovative" patent-protected medicines business as if they were separate units. Such a split would boost the company's profitability, because in-patents drugs command much higher prices that rise every year vs. off-patent medicines that become commoditized and their prices decline.
Embattled Valeant Pharmaceuticals got pounded again yesterday amid continued concerns about its revenue recognition practices. Institutional investors appear to have had enough: shares plunged more than 14%, and have lost almost 70% from their early August all-time high. A few days ago, Valeant (NYSE:VRX) cut its ties to the specialty pharmacy Philidor, which announced it was ceasing its operations.
AstraZeneca has agreed to buy ZS Pharma for $2.7B in cash, pipping Swiss firm Actelion (OTCPK:ALIOY) to the prize in the latest bout of healthcare dealmaking. ZS Pharma (NASDAQ:ZSPH) holders will get $90 per share, a 42% premium to yesterday's close, for the company's proprietary technology to develop novel treatments for hyperkalaemia, or high potassium levels. AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) said the deal will not impact its financial guidance for 2015. AZN -1.1%; ZSPH +40.6% premarket.
NASA has dropped Boeing from a multibillion-dollar competition to fly cargo to the International Space Station, another blow to its defense, space and security business. The company was offering an unmanned version of its Starliner CST-100 space taxi, under development as part of a separate NASA program to transport crew to the space station. The news comes just days after Boeing (NYSE:BA) lost a bid for the Long Range Strike Bomber program, a Pentagon contract estimated to be worth up to $80B.
United Continental CEO Oscar Munoz, out on medical leave since an Oct. 15 heart attack, plans to return to work sometime during the first quarter of 2016. Munoz's comeback would cap a tumultuous period started by the surprise ouster of CEO Jeff Smisek in September and the hiring of United (NYSE:UAL) director Munoz away from CSX. General counsel Brett Hart has been leading the airline in Munoz's absence.
Thursday's Key Earnings
Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) -5.3% on slowing cancer drug sales.
EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) -1.1% AH on plunging revenues.
Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) -2.2% AH as a strong dollar hurts sales.
Linn Energy (NASDAQ:LINE) -1.4% due to a $2.3B writedown.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) +10% AH on strong FQ4 guidance.
Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) +3.7% AH after beating estimates.
Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) +4.3% AH on a robust FQ1 outlook.
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) flat following a mixed quarter.
Weight Watchers (NYSE:WTW) +16.3% AH after topping expectations.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.8% to 19266. Hong Kong -0.8% to 22867. China +1.9% to 3590. India -0.2% to 26265.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.6% to $45.47. Gold +0.3% to $1107.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 2.22%
Today's Economic Calendar
7:30 Fed's Bullard: U.S. economy and monetary policy
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
4:15 PM Fed's Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard: Unconventional monetary policy