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Wall Street Breakfast: Will The March Rally Hold?

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Publish date: Thu, 03 Mar 2016, 09:32 AM
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U.S. futures are hugging the flatline as investors debate whether recent bullish sentiment will continue ahead of tomorrow's U.S. jobs report. "We think the market is still overvalued at current levels and expect it to resume its decline shortly," said Chuck Self, chief investment officer at iSectors. Other market watchers feel differently. "I've been encouraged by the economic numbers," declared Gary Bradshaw, portfolio manager of Hodges Capital Management.

Economy

France sent a double Brexit warning to the U.K. today, ahead of a summit between Prime Minister David Cameron and President Francois Hollande. "The day this relationship unravels, migrants will no longer be in Calais," French economy minister Emmanuel Macron told the FT, in reference to border controls that keep unwanted migrants on the French side of the English Channel. He also said that France would "roll out the red carpet" for bankers seeking "repatriations from the City of London."

The refugee crisis is a "manifestation of the disintegration of the European Union," Greece's controversial former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told CNBC, as he warned against Turkey and Greece becoming a "large concentration camp for hapless refugees." According to the United Nations, 131,724 refugees and migrants made the risky journey across the Mediterranean Sea during January and February, while the EU (of which Greece is a member), has struggled to agree to a strategy to deal with the waves of people.

More deflationary pressures in the eurozone are surfacing, raising the chances ECB President Mario Draghi will increase stimulus at a central bank meeting next week. Markit's composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to 53 from 53.6 in January - its lowest level in 13 months - while the firm's measure of output prices across manufacturing and services fell further below the key 50 level. The slowdown in business activity, slower hiring and price declines "suggest that the region’s recovery is losing momentum" said Markit's Chris Williamson.

European and Asian investments are moving fast into Iran, leaving the U.S. in the dust as some sanctions continue to keep American money out of the Islamic Republic. The U.S. is "nowhere in terms of trade" due to remaining penalties over Iran's human rights policies and concerns about terrorism, said David Grayson, chief executive of brokerage Auerbach Grayson. Broad Western sanctions against Iran were lifted in January after the government agreed to curb its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, North Korea fired several short-range projectiles into waters off the divided peninsula this morning, hours after the U.N. Security Council voted to impose tough new sanctions on the isolated state due to its recent nuclear test and long-range rocket launch. The resolution aims to cripple parts of the North Korean economy that power its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, such as inspecting all planes and ships carrying imports and exports, and to stop selling the country aviation fuel.

Macau's economy contracted 20.3% in 2015 as the city was hit by plunging gambling revenue amid China's anti-corruption crackdown and slowing growth. The economy shrank 14.4% in the fourth quarter, according to an e-mailed statement from the local statistics bureau. Gross gaming revenue in the world's largest gambling hub also recorded its 21st consecutive monthly slump in February, but saw a smaller decrease due to China's Lunar New Year holiday.

Stocks

Former Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon died in a car crash yesterday after being indicted for conspiring to rig bids for leases in the oil and natural gas industry. McClendon slammed into an embankment while traveling at a "high rate of speed," according to the Oklahoma City Police Department, which also said "he pretty much drove straight into the wall." Chesapeake (NYSE:CHK) shares soared 24% on Wednesday - not related to the fatal accident - after the company said it did not expect to face criminal prosecution or fines related to the indictment.

Samarco and its two shareholders, Vale (NYSE:VALE) and BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP), have confirmed an agreement with Brazil for the restoration of the environment and communities affected by its dam disaster last November. "It could be as much as R$30B ($7.7B)," Brazil's attorney-general Luis Inacio Adams said in a press conference. "We don't know and no one knows how much is needed in repairs and compensation." In the event Samarco is unable to pay its obligations, Vale and BHP would be responsible for covering the costs.

Another up and down day for SunEdison. Shares sank 11.7% in extended trading after the renewable energy company reported it would suspend its quarterly dividend on preferred stock. The board "intends to reassess its dividend policy on an ongoing basis." Earlier Wednesday, SunEdison (NYSE:SUNE) soared 19% following a WSJ article that stated bankers were balking at providing committed loans to finance its planned acquisition of Vivint Solar (NYSE:VSLR).

After dropping a merger bid for United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) earlier this week, Honeywell (NYSE:HON) CEO David Cote said his firm will walk away on friendly terms, without going hostile. "I was pretty clear from the beginning with investors that I'm not going to do that," he proclaimed during an interview with Jim Cramer. "We've got plenty of other opportunities." Cote also noted that, had the deal been successful, he would have considered serving as CEO of the combined company.

Yahoo is holding a traditional auction for its search business, and has begun sending nondisclosure agreements to prospective bidders, CTFN reports. Bankers state P-E firms are expected to join the auction, but add that some of the companies mentioned by the press as potential buyers, such as AT&T (NYSE:T) and Axel Springer (OTC:AXSPY), aren't expected to show strong interest. In-line with reports of tension between Yahoo's (NASDAQ:YHOO) board and Marissa Mayer, one source said the decision to start the auction came from the board rather than management.

Looking to eliminate stock shortages and boost online growth, Target (NYSE:TGT) is investing $2B-$2.5B annually starting in 2017 to upgrade its supply chain and technology infrastructure. The retailer also plans to grow its comparable sales by 3% or more annually starting next year and expects a majority of that growth to come from its existing stores and online operations. This year, Target will focus on improving its digital sales performance, and is undertaking a vast culling of items to simplify selection.

Lenders are giving Sports Authority until the end of April to find a buyer and close a deal to save part of the ailing retail chain, which sought bankruptcy protection on Wednesday. Some 140 stores are already being sacrificed to appease creditors - including Nike (NYSE:NKE), Asics America (OTCPK:ASCCY), and Under Armour (NYSE:UA) - owed more than $1B, and more may be closed unless the company finds a buyer or manages to put together a turnaround plan. However, $595M in bankruptcy loans come due June 30, which doesn't give the beleaguered retailer much time.

How do you perk up employees after your firm's stock price falls off a cliff? LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) Chief Executive Jeff Weiner is declining his 2016 annual stock compensation (a reported $14M) in order to pass it on to workers at the professional social network. Up to Wednesday's close of $119.68, LinkedIn's stock had dropped nearly 38% since its disappointing Q4 results on Feb. 4. Weiner isn't the only one employing the strategy. Back in October, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) CEO Jack Dorsey gave away $200M in stock to employees after steep layoffs and a battered stock price had taken their toll.

IBM has filed a lawsuit against Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN), alleging that the daily deals website operator builds its business model using patents without authorization. "Groupon has refused to engage in any meaningful discussions about reaching a license agreement to end its infringement of IBM's patents," the firm's complaint said. Big Blue filed a similar lawsuit against Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) last year, accusing it of patent infringement in running its travel and dining websites.

Toshiba is seeking about ¥200B ($1.8B) in loans from three lenders to cover the cost of restructuring of its home electronics and semiconductor businesses, the Nikkei Asian Review reports. The Japanese electronics giant, which has admitted hiding its poor performance for years by using false accounting, is braced for a net loss of ¥710B this year, with restructuring costs expected to come to ¥248B. Toshiba (OTCPK:TOSYY) ended the day +7.1% in Tokyo following the news.

M&A roundup: Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) has announced a $320M deal to buy Leaba Semiconductor, an Israeli company that designs networking chips. Samsonite (OTCPK:SMSEY) is close to buying luggage maker Tumi Holdings (NYSE:TUMI), in a deal that could be valued at $2B. MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) has reached an agreement to sell its Shops at Crystals mall in Las Vegas to a Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) partnership for $1.13B. There are also vague rumors going around that PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) is considering a $47/share offer from American Express (NYSE:AXP).

Volkswagen shares are heading south after the carmaker disclosed that former executives Martin Winterkorn and Herbert Diess were briefed internally about diesel emissions issues on U.S. vehicles, months before the firm publicly acknowledged its defeat devices. At issue is whether VW (OTCPK:VLKAY) management waited too long to inform investors of potential liabilities that would later cause a massive erosion of the company's share price and market value.

U.S. carriers are set for a dogfight over newly opened flight rights to Havana, but their interest in other Cuban destinations appears to be lukewarm. Airlines had until the close of business on Wednesday to submit applications to the Department of Transportation that outlined the routes they would like to fly. That comes after a February agreement paved the way towards restoring commercial air service between the two countries for the first time in decades. Related tickers: AAL, DAL, JBLU, LUV, UAL, ALK

Continuing its international expansion, Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) is opening its first shop in South Africa next month, the coffee giant's local licensee Taste Holdings told Reuters. "By the end of the next two years we will have opened about 12 to 15 outlets," Taste Holdings Chief Executive Carlo Gonzaga declared. "We think the South African market can, right now, take about 150 Starbucks stores."

Uber Technologies is revving up its engines in Pakistan, launching its ride-hailing service in the country after rival Easy Taxi pulled out amid a broad exit from Asia. In a departure from its usual business model, UBER customers will be allowed to pay in cash, rather than credit cards, which are rarely used in Pakistan. Uber also disclosed that its international business lost $237M in 2014, wider than its $32M loss the previous year. The statement marks the most recent period for which the privately-held company was required to report financial data to authorities in Amsterdam.

Wednesday's Key Earnings

Costco (NASDAQ:COST) -2.5% premarket hurt by higher costs.

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +1.3% to 16960. Hong Kong -0.3% to 19941. China +0.4% to 2860. India +1.5% to 24607.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.1% to $34.71. Gold +0.2% to $1243.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.85%

Today's Economic Calendar
Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Productivity and Costs
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
9:45 PMI Services Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
10:45 Fed's Kaplan: Monetary Policy
4:30 Money Supply
4:30 Fed Balance Sheet

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