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Wall Street Breakfast: Traders Look To GDP Report

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Publish date: Fri, 28 Oct 2016, 07:16 AM
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U.S. economic growth likely accelerated in the third quarter amid a rebound in inventory investment and a surge in exports. If that's the case, the market could see another spike in bond yields as traders cement expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. The report, which will be published at 8:30 a.m ET, could also be the first in eight quarters where growth topped 2.6%.

Economy

Crude futures are largely unchanged at almost $50 a barrel ahead of an OPEC technical meeting which starts in Vienna today. But oil prices are set for their biggest weekly loss since mid-September on concerns that member nations won't be able to agree on an output deal. Venezuela's Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino announced earlier this week that 12 non-OPEC states have also been invited to the gathering.

Italy has defended its rule-breaking 2017 budget to the European Commission, saying the migrant crisis, post-earthquake reconstruction and lower-than-expected growth were to blame, after tensions surfaced over its fiscal violations. Brussels could reject the budget plan, but no decision is expected before a Dec. 4 referendum over PM Matteo Renzi's flagship constitutional reform.

More data from the eurozone: French growth rebounded in Q3, after contracting in the previous period, as part of a start-stop expansion that leaves Europe's second-largest economy lagging its neighbors. GDP in France expanded by 0.2%, compared to Spain, which grew 0.7% during the period How about inflation? The French preliminary CPI figure for October came in at 0.0% M/M, flaming the fire for critics of the ECB's stimulus program.

The beleaguered sterling is struggling again today, down 0.2% to $1.2140. The move south likely reflects news that the Northern Irish High Court has rejected a claim that law in Northern Ireland means additional steps beyond Royal Prerogative are needed to trigger the Brexit process. In short, Northern Ireland can't stop or slow Brexit.

Stocks

Alphabet ticked up 1.3% after the bell as the company reported quarterly results that topped expectations and announced a more than $7B stock buyback. The primary driver was strength in search and YouTube, CFO Ruth Porat told investors on a conference call, adding that Google Cloud is seeing "substantial revenue growth." She also said Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) was "excited about the progress of newer businesses in Google and Other Bets."

Amazon shares fell over 6% AH on a forecast that Q4 operating income could come in at zero despite beating estimates this quarter. Investment in distribution warehouses, top video content and the engineering teams behind virtual assistant Alexa pushed operating costs up 29% - and look set to continue into the holiday shopping season. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) also opened 18 fulfillment centers during the quarter, the biggest growth in the delivery network since 2012.

After the 25th anniversary of its first notebook, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has announced a new MacBook Pro with a touchscreen row of keys called Touch Bar. "This week happens to be a huge week in the history of the Mac, and the history of Apple," CEO Tim Cook declared. The new lineup includes a 13-inch version starting at $1,799, a 15-inch version at $2,399 and a version with traditional function keys for $1,499.

European earnings roundup: Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) -15% premarket after cutting its profit forecast for 2016 amid difficulties in the U.S. Sanofi (NYSE:SNY) shares are up 7.7% before the bell, lifting its profit outlook for the year and detailing news of a big buyback. Risk aversion and negative rates continued to weigh on trading at UBS, but the bank recorded a Q3 beat. RBS swung to a third-quarter loss on legacy misconduct and restructuring charges. Total (NYSE:TOT) topped expectations, thanks to cost cuts and an increase in output. AB Inbev (NYSE:BUD) -4% premarket due to woes in Brazil, cutting its guidance due to weakness in that market.

The eve of a presidential election is typically a time when companies put merger plans on hold and wait for clarity on matters like antitrust policy. Not this year. U.S. companies have struck a total of $248.9B in merger agreements this month, surpassing the previous record of $240B in July 2015. More on the way? New reports suggest CenturyLink (NYSE:CTL) is eyeing a $30B merger with L3 Communications (NYSE:LLL) and GE is discussing an oil & gas combination with Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) for roughly the same amount.

Mylan's price hikes on EpiPens have added millions to DoD spending since 2008 as the agency covered more prescriptions for the lifesaving allergy shot at near-retail prices, government data provided to Reuters shows. That may change. Both the Pentagon and Mylan (NASDAQ:MYL) told Reuters that discussions are underway that could extend a military discount to EpiPens filled at retail pharmacies through the use of rebates.

The Senate's antitrust subcommittee has set a hearing on the proposed AT&T (NYSE:T) buyout of Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) for Dec. 7, at which the CEOs of both companies will testify. "The hearing will examine the impact of the proposed transaction on consumers, including the implications for competition and innovation in the creation and distribution of video content," the committee said in a statement.

Prominent public pension funds have turned their backs on hedge funds, and so have a few big insurance companies. Now, one of the world's biggest private equity firms, the Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG), is walking away, too. "When our performance falls short, it is critical that we deal with the consequences," Carlyle co-founder Bill Conway Jr. said. Investors took $28B out of the industry in Q3, according to Hedge Fund Research, marking the biggest quarterly outflow since the depths of the financial crisis.

"This story is based on ill-informed speculation and contains material inaccuracies," a Barclays (NYSE:BCS) spokesman said in reference to a recent Bloomberg report. Sources suggested the bank was trying to cap a penalty to settle a U.S investigation into its sale of mortgage securities at $2B after receiving an opening offer it considered too high.

Chipotle has turned to high-profile investment bankers and lawyers to help defend itself against activist investor Bill Ackman, although he hasn't yet publicly made any demands since becoming Chipotle's (NYSE:CMG) second-largest shareholder last month. According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, as well as law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, are now working for the U.S. restaurant chain.

In a funding round with some Japanese-based asset managers, Toyota (NYSE:TM) is investing in car-sharing startup Getaround, which already has about 300K active users in the U.S. The funding amount is believed to be $10M, according to Nikkei. Automakers have increasingly been scrambling to partner with tech firms to head off competition that threatens to eventually trim demand for car ownership.

Although Uber has barely tackled self-driving cars for the road, it's already dreaming about the skies. The company released a white paper envisioning a future - less than 10 years from now - in which commuters hop onto a small aircraft, take off vertically and within minutes arrive at their destinations. Like its taxi service, UBER's flying vehicles will be summoned through a mobile app, and would eventually be flown by autonomously.

Thursday's Key Earnings

Altria (NYSE:MO) -0.1% following a narrow beat.
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) +1.3% AH with Google strength driving profits.
Amazon (AMZN) -6.1% AH as expenses hurt the retailer.
Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) -1.4% AH on sluggish revenue.
Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) +1.3% AH although posting a grim outlook.
Blackstone (NYSE:BX) -0.2% despite managed assets climbing 8%.
Bristol-Myers (NYSE:BMY) +5.4% hiking its forecasts.
Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) +6.4% topping expectations.
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) -1% on falling volumes.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) -5.3% raising outlook, cutting capex.
Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) +1.5% on its 12th straight quarterly beat.
Enterprise Products (NYSE:EPD) -1.5% after an in-line Q3.
Ford (NYSE:F) -1.2% on profit pressure outside NA.
LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) +0.2% AH after topping expectations.
Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) -3.1% following in-line earnings.
Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) +0.6% beating estimates, restructuring.
UPS (NYSE:UPS) +0.5% booking solid sales

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +0.6% to 17446. Hong Kong -0.8% to 22954. China -0.3% to 3104 India +0.1% to 27941.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude -0.3% to $49.57. Gold -0.2% to $1266.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.85%

 

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