It's data deluge day in London. The BoE will release its monetary policy decision, the minutes from the meeting, its quarterly inflation report and throw a Mark Carney press conference, less than 48 hours since announcing that he'll remain at the bank until 2019. After its last set of expectations were proved overly pessimistic by a resilient set of economic data published after the Brexit vote, there are expectations of a significant overhaul this time around.
Economy
Dealing a blow to PM Theresa May's plans, the U.K. High Court has ruled that the government cannot start negotiations to leave the EU without a vote from Parliament. The government could now be forced to get parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50, the formal mechanism that begins a two-year window for exit negotiations. Sterling +1.1% to $1.2443.
Egypt's central bank floated its pound currency and hiked interest rates by 300 basis points overnight in a move aimed at rebalancing currency markets and securing a $12B loan from the IMF. The National Bank of Egypt also said it would abolish the priority list for imports and phase out monetary financing of the budget deficit over the coming months. EGX 30 +8.3%.
The Chicago Cubs shed themselves of the "Curse of the Billy Goat" last night and ended a 108-year wait for a World Series title by beating the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in 10 innings in a thrilling Game Seven classic. Stock market tea leaves? Over the month following their last victory in 1908, the Dow Jones jumped 8% (a similar-sized gain these days would add more than 1,400 points), while the index slumped 4.9% after the Indians' last win in 1948. Both were also election years.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has fallen in seven straight sessions through Wednesday, the first time the large-cap index has done that since 2011. Yet even amid all of the declines, the S&P has fallen less than 2.5% in the past seven sessions. To put that into context, the market has suffered a greater percentage drop on two separate days this year. With election day almost here, will Mr. Market finally snap out of his mood?
Although many traders are anticipating a rate hike before the end of the year, the Fed on Wednesday held interest rates steady again, while continuing to acknowledge that the case for a move is getting stronger. FOMC officials, however, made no direct nod to a coming rate increase at the December meeting, a move that the market is strongly anticipating. The Fed also adjusted its rhetoric - no longer predicting low near-term inflation.
The number of states poised to have a $12-an-hour minimum wage or higher could more than double on Election Day if voters in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and Washington approve ballot questions seeking to raise the pay floor. A majority of states have minimum wages above the federal level of $7.25, but only three - California, New York and Oregon - have established a pathway to $12 an hour or more in the coming years.
Stocks
Profits at Facebook soared in the third quarter, but a warning about slowing ad-revenue growth pulled the stock down 8% AH. Ad load will taper off in the second half of 2017, CFO David Wehner said on a conference call, as Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) gets close to maxing out the number of ads it can cram into news feeds without damaging its user experience. Company ad revenue growth averaged 50% over the past two years.
More chipmaker consolidation? Microsemi (NASDAQ:MSCC) is running a sale process after receiving takeover interest from Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) and Bank of Montreal has been hired to run the operation. The news comes as U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker warns that massive government investment in China's semiconductor industry risks distorting the global market for integrated circuits, leading to damaging overcapacity and stifling innovation.
European bank earnings: Investment banking revenues helped offset weakness at Societe Generale (OTCPK:SCGLY) as the Deputy CEO warned political and geopolitical risks remain a key concern in Europe. Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) defied loss expectations with a suprise profit, but Chief Tidjane Thiam said the macro-environment remains challenging. Higher fees and better margins led ING to beat expectations in Q3, but the company announced plans to shed 7,000 jobs and further invest in digital platforms.
Well into numerous developments around a sales-incentive scandal at Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), the SEC is now in the early stages of investigating the bank. The probe covers sales practice disclosure and other matters, according to Dow Jones, and requests were sent for documents in recent weeks. On Monday, Wells Fargo entered a proposed settlement of a racketeering suit for $50M.
There's no home court advantage for Mylan (NASDAQ:MYL) when it comes to the EpiPen controversy. West Virginia's attorney general has called on the DOJ to reject an announced $465M settlement from Mylan to resolve allegations that the company shortchanged the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program. "It does not nearly pay for the damage done and sends the wrong message of leniency," Patrick Morrisey wrote U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch.
As it looks to offload its Salix stomach-drug business to pare debt, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRX) is exploring a sale of its eye-surgery equipment unit for as much as $2.5B, WSJ reports. The drugmaker has also been sued on behalf of former investors in Sprout Pharmaceuticals, which it bought last year for $1B, over its alleged failure to market "the female Viagra" pill Addyi successfully.
Target's leadership shakeup continues... Grocery chief Anne Dament is stepping down, as the retailer struggles to attract more shoppers to visit its food aisles. The move comes less than eighteen months after she was appointed and tasked with turning around the grocery business, which accounts for a fifth of Target's (NYSE:TGT) overall sales. Chief Merchandising Officer Mark Tritton will take over her duties on an interim basis.
Closing arguments were heard late Wednesday in a trial on whether UPS should be fined $872M by New York state for allegedly delivering untaxed cigarettes from smoke shops on Native-American reservations. The boxing match spanned the spectrum of "entitled sense of disregard" to "overreach" and is part of a broader effort by the state to combat smuggling of cigarettes from lower-tax areas.
Australia's corporate watchdog is concerned about the effects a proposed $130B merger between DuPont (NYSE:DD) and Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) may have on "competition for... insecticides, seeds, and materials science products." A final decision by the ACCC will be made on Feb. 2. The tie-up is also being scrutinized by regulators across the globe, with EU antitrust officials expected to decide on the deal by Feb. 6.
The supervisory board of Volkswagen will hold an extraordinary meeting tomorrow to consult on a wide-ranging restructuring of the automaker, according to the German state of Lower Saxony, VW's (OTCPK:VLKAY) second-biggest shareholder. Management is currently seeking to reach agreement on cost cuts and strategy in time for a Nov. 18 meeting of the supervisory board that will ratify spending targets across the group for the coming years.
Following similar deals with rival airlines, Delta (NYSE:DAL) said customers can earn award miles toward free flights when booking stays with Airbnb (Private:AIRB) just like they currently do with hotels. "Nearly 20% of U.S. travelers, based on our research, have used a home-sharing site like Airbnb," said Henry Harteveldt, founder of travel consultancy Atmosphere Research Group. "Delta recognizes that."
The Pentagon has awarded Lockheed Martin a $6.1B deal for the next batch of F-35 fighter jets, but the move triggered an unusual rebuke from the defense contractor over the "unilateral contract action." The F-35 accounts for 23% of Lockheed's (NYSE:LMT) revenue and is an important contributor to sales and earnings at other companies including Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) and BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESY). Under the new contract, the average cost per plane will total approximately $107M.
Wednesday's Key Earnings
21st Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) -4.3% AH despite topping forecasts.
AIG (NYSE:AIG) -2.7% AH after a big earnings miss.
Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) -2.5% reversing after strong results.
Allergan (NYSE:AGN) -5.6% following a weak quarter.
Facebook (FB) -6.4% AH warning of revenue growth.
Fitbit (NYSE:FIT) -29.7% AH issuing a disappointing outlook.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) flat AH despite strong shipments.
Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) -1.1% following more AT&T drama.
Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFM) +2.4% AH eliminating its co-CEO structure.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.8% to 17134. Hong Kong -0.6% to 22683. China +0.8% to 3128. India -0.4% to 27430.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude +0.7% to $45.67. Gold -1.1% to $1294.10.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.8%
Today's Economic Calendar
Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Productivity and Costs
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
9:45 PMI Services Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 Money Supply