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Wall Street Breakfast: Trump Takes The White House

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Publish date: Wed, 09 Nov 2016, 07:44 AM
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Donald Trump has been elected the 45th president of the United States, beating his opponent Hillary Clinton as well as a raft of pre-election polls. "Now it's time for America to bind the wounds of division," he said in a victory speech, calling on all Americans to come together. The GOP also kept control of both the Senate and the House, giving the party greater freedom to implement its policy platform.

Economy

It's an historic day for the United States, but it may not be one for the markets. Global equities initially cratered on word of a Trump presidency, even triggering safety breakers on U.S. index futures, but have pared losses. Dow futures are now about 400 points lower, while the S&P and Nasdaq are down over 2%. The tone is certainly negative, but this is not a Brexit reaction.

As vote counting went on, there were some large currency moves. The Mexican peso was hit hardest, tumbling as much as 13%, while the U.S. dollar plunged against the euro, yen and Swiss franc. Mexico's central bank is scheduled to hold a joint news conference with the finance ministry at 8 a.m. this morning.

Out of the dollar and out of stocks, but out of bonds? A bid for safety is apparent in the gold trade, however, a concurrent selloff has been happening in U.S. Treasuries, which are also typically seen as a safe haven asset. Are investors betting on more Treasuries coming to market under a Trump presidency? 10-year Treasury yield +7 bps to 1.93%.

For OPEC to try and rein in production was always going to be a tough task but will a Trump victory make the job more difficult? A rapprochement with Russia could mean the lifting of Treasury sanctions on the Kremlin, but his opposition to the Iranian nuclear deal could curb investment in the Islamic Republic's energy sector. Crude futures flat at $45/bbl.

Voters in Arizona, Colorado and Maine approved boosting the minimum wage in their states to $12 per hour (after a series of graduated increases), while the state of Washington approved increasing its minimum wage to $13.50 by 2020. The federal minimum wage remains $7.25, which has not been changed since 2009, but voters are demanding more and taking it to the ballot box.

While there's no deja Brexit, there is new drama in the U.K. Scotland's government plans to join a challenge to Prime Minister Theresa May's push to begin the withdrawal from the EU without parliamentary consent. Nicola Sturgeon, first minister in Scotland's semiautonomous government in Edinburgh, has instructed the country's top law officer to apply to take part in a Supreme Court hearing scheduled to begin on Dec. 5.

In a surprise move, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the country is taking all existing 500 and 1,000 rupee notes out of circulation to curb corruption, thwart counterfeiters and dredge up what could be billions of dollars of taxable income currently stashed in the underground economy. The current 500- and 1,000-rupee bills will ceased being legal tender, but can be redeemed at banks and post offices until Dec. 30.

Stocks

Donald Trump's victory sets the stage for a series of radical policy reversals both at home and abroad.

Banks: The core assumption the Fed will raise interest rates soon and follow with further gradual hikes over coming years will be called into question. Financial institutions are struggling on the news. Fed Funds futures are now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a December move and the ECB is likely to interpret the uncertainty with stimulus and lower rates for longer. Premarket movement: GS -8.3%, WFC -3.5%, C -3.2%, BAC -2.4%, CS -2.3% JPM -2.2%, LYG -1.8%, HSBC -1.7%, USB -1.4%, BCS -1.5%, ING -0.6%, MS, DB, RBS, UBS

Auto sector and trade: The industry has bet billions of dollars on globalized production and higher fuel efficiency, but Trump has been talking about moves to effectively reshore jobs to the United States and has called climate change a hoax. The president-elect also opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership and called for fundamental changes to the NAFTA pact with Mexico and Canada. Related stocks: TM -3.9%, F -1.1%, GM -0.4%, FCAU -0.4%, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, OTCPK:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BAMXF, TTM

Healthcare: The weakest sector this year may become winners as Obamacare reforms are set to be "repealed and replaced" and major legislation Clinton proposed is unlikely to be imposed on drugmakers. While Trump hasn't set out a comprehensive alternative to the Affordable Care Act (which may see 22M Americans lose current coverage), he said he'll encourage competition between markets in different states. Related tickers: MYL +5.8%, NVS +3.4%, SNY +2.9%, AZN +2.4%, GSK +1.9%, PFE +1.8%, CELG +1%, ABBV, MRK, BMY, LLY, JNJ, ABT, ACET, ZTS, BIIB, REGN, UNH, AET, ANTM, CI, HUM, WCG, CNC, MOH, GTS, HQY

Defense: Trump has called for eliminating the sequester on defense spending and initiate a military buildup, boosting troop levels and the number of ships and aircraft. He seeks to fully offset the cost through "common sense reforms that eliminate government waste and budget gimmicks" and from additional payments from countries where the U.S. has military bases, including Germany, Saudi Arabia and Japan. Premarket movement: LMT +4.5%, RTN +1.7%, GD, BA, NOC, OA, HII, HON, UTX, ITT, TXT, LLL, COL

Tax policy: Donald Trump's call for a repatriation holiday of 10% for the more than two trillion dollars in corporate cash parked overseas is now closer to reality. He has also promised the biggest tax revolution since Ronald Reagan, pledging that no American business would pay more than 15% of their profits in tax, compared with a current maximum of 35%. Top 10 U.S. companies with cash overseas: MSFT -2.1%, GE -1.5%, AAPL -1.7%, PFE +4.5%, IBM -1.1%, MRK +1.5%, GOOG -2.2%, GOOGL -1.7%, CSCO -2.2%, JNJ, XOM

Immigration: One of the biggest beneficiaries might be Mexican cement company Cemex (NYSE:CX). Trump has campaigned to build a wall on the Mexican border and immediately begin the process of deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records. Private prison and detention center stocks are also getting a big boost premarket. Related tickers: GEO +8%, CXW +3.6%, VMC +2%, X, +1.2%, MLM, GVA, TTEK, NUE, STLD, DE, CAT, FLR, KBR

Extending legal weed from coast to coast, California, Nevada and Massachusetts have all voted to legalize recreational marijuana. As of early Wednesday, races were still too close to call in Maine, which also had a recreational measure on the ballot. Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize recreational marijuana in 2012, paving the way for Oregon, and Alaska and Washington D.C. to follow suit.

Californians have agreed to significantly raise the tax on cigarettes and vaping devices, but similar measures fell short in Colorado, North Dakota and Missouri. California's Proposition 56 will increase taxes on a pack of cigarettes from 87 cents to $2.87, bringing it more in line with other states, and sets a tax on e-cigarettes. Related tickers: MO -2.8%, BTI -1.8%, PM -1.6%, RAI -1.6%, LO, VGR, VPCO

Three Bay Area cities have also voted to levy a tax on sodas and other sugary drinks in an effort to curb obesity and diabetes. The measure passed by wide margins in San Francisco, Oakland and Albany (a separate vote in Boulder, Colorado is on track to pass as well). In 2014, Berkeley became the first city in the country to levy a soda tax and Philadelphia became the second in June. Related stocks: SBUX -2.2%, UL -2.2%, KO -1.5%, PEP -1.8%, PG -1.1%, DPS, MNST, FIZZ

In non-election news: Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) has filed a lawsuit against Theranos (Private:THERA), alleging breach of contract and demanding a jury trial. Walgreens' drug store unit is seeking $140M in damages, according to court records, which represents the amount it invested in its former lab tersting partner.

As it prepares for its second bankruptcy in as many years, American Apparel (OTCPK:APPCQ) has resumed sale talks with Sequential Brands (NASDAQ:SQBG) and Riley Financial (NASDAQ:RILY) after negotiations with Authentic Brands stalled earlier this week. Declaring bankruptcy would allow any buyer of the Los Angeles company to avoid tens of millions of dollars in liabilities, including leases for around 140 stores in the U.S. and Canada.

A Google drone might deliver your Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) burrito, but it looks like it won't deliver your Starbucks coffee (NASDAQ:SBUX). The Project Wing drone delivery program, now a part of Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), has scrapped a Starbucks partnership as part of a cost-cutting move, sources told Bloomberg. The budget cuts also mean a hiring freeze and an attempt to shift employees to other projects.

If you recently picked up one of GoPro's (NASDAQ:GPRO) long-in-the-works Karma drones, you should probably return it. The company has issued a recall for all devices (around 2,500 since it was released on Oct. 23) because "in a very small number of cases" the Karmas lost power while in use. The announcement comes less than a week after GoPro downgraded its revenue forecasts for the holiday quarter. GPRO -7.3% premarket.

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan -5.4% to 16251. Hong Kong -2.2% to 22415. China -0.6% to 3128. India -1.2% to 27252.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -1.6%. Frankfurt -1.5%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -2%. S&P -2.2%. Nasdaq -2.6%. Crude flat at $45. Gold +2.6% to $1307.10.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +7 bps to 1.93%

Today's Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Wholesale Trade
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $23B, 10-Year Note Auction
9:00 PM Fed's Williams: Economic Outlook

 

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