U.S. stock index futures are dipping into negative territory again as Americans cast their vote in a closely-watched midterm election. The results will likely set the tone for the markets, though the question is what kind of tone that will be. Some say a Republican sweep could send Treasury yields higher and weigh on stocks, though others say it could propel equities given Trump's business-friendly agenda. The same split prediction is being offered if Democrats take control of one of the chambers of Congress.

Economy

Four hundred and thirty-five seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, while 35 of the 100 Senate seats are also on the ballot. Betting markets have suggested that Democrats will gain control of the House, but Republicans will keep their grip on the Senate. The vote is expected to draw historic numbers to the polls and could spark further volatility in the wider financial markets.

Since President Trump's election, the S&P 500 has risen more than 27%. That figure betters the early months of Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. Barack Obama's numbers are much higher, but stocks were springing back from the depths of the financial crisis. On average, the S&P 500 has been up 16.7% in the 12 months after a midterm election, going back to World War II.

Eurozone finance ministers are urging Italy to engage in talks with Brussels on a revised draft budget for 2019, backing the European Commission's view that the plans violate previous commitments by Rome to shrink its deficit next year. The budget "will not change," Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said in response, adding that there is "neither conflict nor compromise" with the commission.

Positive news from Europe's largest economy: Factory orders in Germany edged up 0.3% in September - driven by higher demand from domestic and eurozone clients - beating analyst expectations for a slide. It follows a 2.5% increase in August, marking the first time this year that industrial orders increased in two consecutive months. The Federal Statistics Office will publish preliminary GDP growth data next week.

Seeking to diversify his nation's energy mix, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has laid the foundation for the kingdom’s first nuclear research reactor, among seven projects launched during a visit to Riyadh's King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology. The world’s top crude exporter hopes to build 16 reactors over the next two decades for $80B, despite concerns over nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Breakthrough? "The Chinese side is ready to have discussions with the U.S. on issues of mutual concern and work for a solution on trade acceptable to both sides," Vice President Wang Qishan told the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. Ahead of his expected meeting with President Xi later this month, President Trump has threatened to impose further tariffs on $267B of Chinese imports if the two countries cannot reach a trade deal.

Stocks

Today's midterm elections could greenlight recreational marijuana in two more states. If approved, Michigan and North Dakota would join nine others, plus Washington D.C., where recreational use is already legal. Less aggressive cannabis-related measures are at stake in Missouri, Utah and Ohio, while races in Florida and Kentucky will be viewed by some as referendums on pot.

Hours before U.S. voters head to the polls, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) blocked about 115 user accounts after federal authorities tipped it off to suspicious behavior that may be linked to a foreign entity. Social media companies say they are now more vigilant against potential election interference upon finding themselves unprepared to tackle such activity in the U.S. presidential election two years ago.

France will not rest until its plan for an EU-wide digital tax gets approved before the end of the year, according to the country's finance minister. "This is a clear red line," said Bruno Le Maire. EU governments are still divided over a plan to tax big internet firms like Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Facebook (FB) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) on their turnover, fearing retaliation from the U.S.

More reports surrounding Amazon's (AMZN) second headquarters suggest it may be split evenly between two cities. The motivation is recruiting enough tech talent and easing potential issues with housing, transit, and other factors when adding tens of thousands of workers to an area. Amazon also revealed plans to hire thousands of seasonal delivery drivers to supplement the USPS, UPS, FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and its own delivery partners.

Although Lenovo is best known for making electronics, the company is becoming the next to get into the cashier-less convenience store business. Its Lecoo (OTCPK:LNVGY) outlet in Beijing will use facial recognition to identify customers upon entry. They can then browse, pick up items, freely exit, and the charges will be automatically deducted from their mobile payments accounts.

Under Armour is the target of a Wall Street Journal expose on some of the practices of top male executives found to be demeaning to women at the company. Over the years, executives and employees, including CEO Kevin Plank, went with athletes or co-workers to strip clubs on their corporate cards. Women were also invited to Under Armour's (NYSE:UAA) annual company event based on their attractiveness.

General Electric is downplaying analyst concerns that its U.S. tax liabilities could increase by billions of dollars and that a decision by British tax authorities could saddle the company with an additional $1B tax bill. "Based on current law and guidance, we believe our current accrual is a reasonable estimate for the enactment of [the 2017] tax reform," said Todd Ernst, GE's VP of investor communications.

A motorcyclist was injured in a collision with a Waymo (GOOG, GOOGL) self-driving car last month, but Waymo said the accident underscores autonomous safety, as it was caused by the backup driver and would've been avoided if it stayed in autonomous mode (based on software simulations). While humans sometimes make "a split-second decision with insufficient context," the car had a 360-degree view of its environment, Waymo CEO John Krafcik wrote in a blog post.

The last four flights of the crashed Lion Air jetliner all experienced problems with Boeing's (NYSE:BA) new airspeed indicator, according to analysis of data from the recovered flight data recorder. However, investigators said they hadn't yet concluded that the device was responsible for the crash of the first 737 MAX jet and still have to look at altitude and other information from the recorder.

The biennial Airshow China has kicked off in the coastal city of Zhuhai, with China and Russia unveiling a life-size model of their widebody CR929, which they hope will eventually compete with Boeing's (BA) 787 and Airbus's (OTCPK:EADSY) A350. What about the Sino-U.S. trade war? Boeing said it was optimistic of a quick resolution, while Airbus indicated that it did not expect a sales windfall from the tensions.

Monday's Key Earnings

Avis Budget (NASDAQ:CAR) -3.8% AH missing estimates.
Marriott (NYSE:MAR) -5.3% AH offering weak Q4 guidance.
Mylan (NASDAQ:MYL) +8% AH reiterating outlook for 2018.
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) +0.8% AH amid a strong quarter.
Pandora (NYSE:P) +2.2% AH on double-digit revenue gains.

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China -0.2%. India +0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -0.4% to $62.82. Gold +0.3% to $1236.50. Bitcoin flat at $6422.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 3.19%

Today's Economic Calendar

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey