Retailers are preparing for one of their biggest weekends of the year, with an estimated 164M Americans going shopping Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation. The majority of consumers are planning to make their purchases on Black Friday, although the day is becoming less crucial to retailers as sales stretch beyond Thanksgiving week and more shoppers opt to make their purchases online.

Economy

U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a weaker open, with an abbreviated trading session on tap and many traders absent from their desks. From a stock market perspective, history suggests this is a very good time for retail stocks, but forecasts may differ this year due to the recent risk-off sentiment. Since 2007, the week before Black Friday to a week after, the sector usually gains 5%.

Steep losses were seen in Chinese markets ahead of the weekend, with the Shanghai Composite slipping 2.5%, as lingering trade war tensions added to worries about global growth. Trade talks? Discussions between the U.S. and China should be equal and mutually beneficial, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen declared, adding that he hoped the two countries can find ways to manage their differences through dialogue.

Oil prices have tumbled to 2018 lows, falling 2.6% to $53.20/bbl, triggering expectations that OPEC will start withholding supply after a meeting planned for Dec. 6. Amid the plunge, Brent and WTI price divergence has jumped in November to approach levels not seen since the market slump of 2014-2016. Surging North American supply appears to be clogging the system, while global markets are somewhat tighter, in part because of reduced exports from Iran.

The pound soared yesterday after the European Commission endorsed a declaration on the future relationship between the U.K. and EU. The document aims to ensure an "ambitious, wide ranging and balanced economic partnership" that would include "free trade areas as well as wider sectoral co-operation where it is in the mutual interest of both parties." Theresa May will return to Brussels today amid last-minute troubles with Gibraltar, before EU leaders are expected to rubber-stamp the accord on Sunday.

Weaker exports were the primary driver behind Germany's first quarterly economic contraction since 2015, according to the Federal Statistics Office, which confirmed a preliminary negative reading of 0.2% in Q3. The data didn't get any better, as flash PMI figures from IHS Markit showed Germany's manufacturing output slipping to a 67-month low amid a broader eurozone economic slowdown.

Stocks

Nissan will reportedly seek a structural review of its shareholding alliance with Renault (OTCPK:RNLSY) after Carlos Ghosn was removed as chairman following his arrest in Japan for alleged financial offenses. Point of tension? Renault owns 43% of Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) and has the right to vote on board decisions, while the Japanese carmaker holds 15% of the French company but doesn’t have voting rights. Mitsubishi (OTC:MMTOY) was added to the pact in 2016.

The U.S. government has initiated an outreach campaign to foreign allies, trying to persuade wireless and internet providers in these countries to avoid telecom equipment from China's Huawei, WSJ reports. Concerns center on cybersecurity risks, especially in nations that host U.S. military bases. Washington is also considering increasing financial aid for telecom development in countries that shun Chinese-made equipment.

Facebook has recruited Kate Patchen, a veteran of the DOJ and one of the top antitrust lawyers in Silicon Valley, to be a director and associate general counsel of litigation. Her hiring comes amid ongoing scandals at Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and tougher scrutiny from lawmakers concerned about competition and corporate power. Earlier this month, President Trump said his administration was "looking at" antitrust proceedings against Big Tech.

Amazon staff at five U.K. fulfillment centers are staging a protest today against what they call "inhumane working conditions." Insiders have told BuzzFeed that employees have been "knocked unconscious, taken away in ambulances and suffered broken bones" while at work. "Our European Fulfillment Network is fully operational and we continue to focus on delivering for our customers," Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) responded in a statement. "Any reports to the contrary are simply wrong."

The Satanic Temple has "amicably" settled its copyright lawsuit against Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Warner Bros. (NYSE:T) over their alleged misuse of its goat-headed deity in the series Chilling Adventures of Sabrina. The group sought at least $50M of damages, claiming its statue "Baphomet with Children" was misappropriated in a manner implying that it stood for evil, and that the depiction hurt its reputation. Terms of the settlement were not disclosed.

Looking to "fully exploit opportunities of 5G," Nokia (NYSE:NOK) is merging its mobile and fixed networks business groups into a new unit called Access Networks. Nokia also announced management changes with company veteran Tommi Uitto replacing Marc Rouanne as president of Mobile Networks. The president of Access Networks will be named in due course.

While the timing of the offering hasn't been finalized, Tencent Music (TME) is considering launching its U.S. IPO early next month. The online music arm of China's largest social media company tentatively plans to start taking investor orders on Dec. 4 and begin trading Dec. 12 in New York. The company listed its IPO size as $1B with the SEC in early October.

Bankrupt iHeartMedia is seeking a judge’s approval for a bonus plan that could pay its top eleven executives as much as $33M next year. According to court filings, without the bonuses "in a highly competitive and challenging industry," compensation "could significantly undermine" iHeart's (OTCPK:IHRTQ) ability to motivate senior management. Bankruptcy law prohibits bonuses that reward top brass for sticking with companies, but permits incentives tied to hard-to-reach milestones.

Local prosecutors are weighing evidence that would move rape allegations against JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) CEO Richard Liu beyond a "he said, she said" stalemate, Reuters reports. Among the issues being considered by the Hennepin County Attorney's office: the divergent accounts of what happened that night, the initial determination by police that there was no crime, and the woman’s early hesitance to press charges against Liu. JD.com shares have already tumbled by more than a third since Liu's arrest in Minneapolis.

Tesla has slashed prices of its vehicles in China by as much as a quarter to absorb the impact of tariffs from the U.S.-Sino trade war. Beijing imposed 25% duties on $34B of American goods, including cars, in July, in response to Washington's move to slap levies on $34B of Chinese imports. Earlier this year, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) also cut prices of the Model X and Model S in reaction to the tariffs, but later raised them.

Completing a project seven years and billions of dollars in the making, BP has begun production at the Clair Ridge oil field in the North Sea, one of the U.K.’s biggest new oil developments in decades. Designed to run for 40 years, Clair Ridge is expected to reach an output plateau at a peak of 120K barrels of oil a day and increase BP's production to 900K bpd by 2021.

Two months after filing for Chapter 11 protection, the largest U.S. mattress retailer has emerged from bankruptcy with access to $525M in exit financing. Steinhoff International's (OTCPK:STNHY) Mattress Firm also said it will shutter about 660 underperforming stores after revealing multi-billion-euro holes in its balance sheet. The closures leave the Houston-based company with about 2,600 outlets across the United States. Related: TPX, SNBR, HOFT, TGT, LZB

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.4%. China -2.5%. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -2.6% to $53.20. Gold -0.4% to $1223.30. Bitcoin -3.3% to $4312.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 3.06%

Today's Economic Calendar

9:45 PMI Composite Flash
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet