Hi Squizy - will be interesting to watch and agree that it is tightly held (many will be holding till at least Phase 2 LANI results are released) , but as brokers get briefed and in turn initiate coverage, we could see nice steady price movement even on low but steadily increasing volume.

I'll simply be watching Historical Prices each day, with Aug 1st as my starting point and look for those steady volume increments.

Keep in touch.

Keep watching the volume

Tamiflu is a 5 day course of tablets.

Laninamivir requires only a single puff (like an asthmatic inhaler) and it is a "one and done" treatment - one puff as soon as diagnosed. There is a deeper advantage to "one and done" in relation to an influenza antiviral treatment - to quote from the original study findings, "Furthermore, individuals with influenza might spread influenza virus from up to 2 days before to approximately 5 days after the onset of symptoms, and children can spread the virus for 10 days or longer. Therefore, continuous suppression of influenza virus replication in influenza patients is important." This makes good sense and therefore, this is an important point when comparing a single puff treatment to a 5 day course of tablets.

Kids also are much more likely to tolerate a single puff versus 5 days of tablets.

Tamiflu is ineffective against some mutations of the Influenza virus.

[when a patient presents him/herself to a doctor with suspected influenza, it is not practical for the doctor to send a blood sample off for testing. Therefore, prescribing Tamiflu is potentially a game of Russian Roulette].

LANI is demonstrated to be effective against the mutations that are resistant to Tamiflu. LANI is already the antiviral of choice of doctors in Japan.

The current FDA Phase 2 LANI Trials are Placebo vs LANI 40mg vs LANI 80mg (1:1:1).

In Japan, Inavir (aka LANI) 40mg proved to be slightly more effective than Tamiflu in head to head comparisons (however, "one and done" makes it a far more advantageous option) and with low side-effects and so this will be the safe fallback option, but there is a chance that LANI 80mg will be even more efficacious (this was not trialled in Japan), so LANI in the US could potentially be more powerful than Inavir in Japan. BTW, LANI at 80mg and even 120mg were safely tolerated in healthy adults during Phase 1 trials.

Prophylaxis also becomes an interesting and easy option, at least for certain types of personnel (for example, govt/army personnel). The Japanese version (Inavir) is expected to be approved for prophylaxis by the end of this year.

I've been waiting for Biota ($BOTA) to finally trade on Nasdaq and at the current SP, it is not yet on the radar of any/many analysts. Once it comes into range, I have no doubt it will fly. Therefore, a buy at the current SP is a steal IMO.

US antiviral stockpiling is legislated to be 25% of the population - we are talking 75 million courses of antivirals @ approx $80 per course. That is $6 billion and the shelf life is typically 5-7 years. The spend averages approx $1 billion per year. The standard seasonal market is also approx $1 billion per year. Pandemics are a wildcard and move the re-purchase window forward.

LANI has the potential for FDA Emergency designation following Phase II results, so this brings LANI potentially into play from late 2014 onwards.

Going on Japan experience, Inavir (aka LANI) is already dominating the market over there.

So 2014 Phase 2 trial results could catapult Biota in tens of multiples if there is a bad flu pandemic season over the next 12 months. In absence of a bad season, we'd only be looking at a 200% rerate, however, as LANI moves through Phase 3, the SP will clearly rise progressively.

A nice breath of fresh air when a new opportunity like this hits Nasdaq. Just need to wait for Brokers/Analysts to be introduced to Biota.

Off a $4 base, a near term estimate of $5+ and building towards $12 to $20 around Aug/Sept 2014 when Phase 2 LANI results come in.

Remember that LANI is approved and has already overtaken Tamiflu in Japan (LANI known as Inavir in Japan) as the no 1 Flu drug there. Importantly, the Inavir (LANI) safety profile in Japan is good, so FDA approval is highly probable - combined with a $231m investment from the US Govt, BOTA is a special.

Coming in at this entry point looks good for a minimum 100% upon Phase 2 approval.

Watch this space - new blood on Nasdaq, but 2 products on market and a $231m US Govt Grant to commercialize LANI in the US. Serious upside here.