The biggest shopping weekend of the year is here, with bargain hunters across the U.S. planning to spend the next few days searching for discounts in stores and online despite the coronavirus pandemic. With rising wages and increasing consumer confidence, U.S. holiday sales are expected to grow between 3.6% and 5.2%, compared with the 4% growth last year, while online sales are seen rising 20% to 30%, according to the National Retail Federation. From a market perspective, history suggests this is a very good time for retail stocks. Since 2007, the week before Black Friday to a week after, the sector usually gains about 5%.

Stocks - Holiday-shortened session

No Thanksgiving hangover is being seen on Wall Street, with Dow and S&P 500 futures up 0.2% and contracts tied to the Nasdaq up 0.4%, ahead of a half-day trading session. The stock market will close at 1 p.m. ET, bond markets will close an hour later, and metals and U.S. crude oil will settle at 12:30 p.m. and 1:30 p.m., respectively. Over at the White House, President Trump said he would leave the Oval Office if the Electoral College votes for Joe Biden on Dec. 14, though it would be hard for him to concede because "we know there was massive fraud." "Certainly I will. And you know that," he said at a press conference after taking questions from reporters for the first time since Election Day.

Covid - More trials

AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) is likely to conduct an additional global trial to assess the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine using a lower dosage, after the latest studies raised questions over its level of protection. The new assessment would be run instead of adding an arm to an ongoing U.S. trial and would evaluate a lower dosage that performed better than a full amount in Astra's studies, CEO Pascal Soriot told Bloomberg. Soriot does not expect the additional testing to hold up regulatory approvals in the U.K. and EU, though clearance from the FDA may take longer because the regulator is unlikely to approve the vaccine on the basis of studies conducted elsewhere. AZN -1.8% premarket.

Digital - No more extensions

France has sent out notices to Big Tech companies to pay its digital service tax as planned in December. The levy was suspended earlier this year while negotiations played out at the OECD regarding an overhaul of cross-border taxation rules, but with the group stretching negotiations in 2021, France chose not to wait. The country will apply a 3% tax on revenue from digital services earned in France by companies with local revenues of more than €25M and €750M worldwide, but will withdraw the tax as soon as an OECD deal is reached. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) already received a reminder from the French authorities to pay the tax, and will comply, a source told Reuters, while Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) said it had also received a bill and would "ensure compliance with all tax laws in the jurisdictions where we operate."

On The Move - Crypto selloff

While equity markets were closed for Thanksgiving, crypto traders did not take the day off. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) plunged by 15%, or nearly $3,000, to as low as $16,328, while other cryptocurrencies tumbled by as much as 20%. The move is notable, as many in the industry had been expecting a $20K milestone for Bitcoin in the next few days after it hit highs not seen since the end of 2017. "Any healthy market needs to have pullbacks and periods of consolidation. Already in 2020 we've seen a gain of 160%," said Antoni Trenchev, a managing partner and co-founder of Nexo, which bills itself as the world's biggest crypto lender. "Long term I don't see anything derailing Bitcoin's irrevocable rise higher."

Cryptocurrency - Facebook's Libra could come in January

Many speed bumps have plagued the launch of Facebook's (NASDAQ:FB) Libra, but the digital currency may soon see the light of day. The exact launch date depends on when the project receives approval to operate as a payments service from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, but could come as early as January, FT reports. The 27-strong Libra Association would initially launch a single coin backed one-for-one by the dollar, while other currencies and a "digital composite" of all of its coins would be rolled out at a later point. The more limited scope may appease regulators, but critics have complained that a move to single-currency coins could result in additional costs for currency conversion, undermining the project's goal of greater financial inclusion.

Trending - Layoffs swell at the House of Mouse

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is letting go of 32,000 workers - primarily at its theme parks business - marking an increase from the 28,000 it announced in September. The cuts will go into effect in the first half of 2021 due to the "current climate, including COVID-19 impacts, and changing environment in which we are operating." Disney's California-based theme parks have faced prolonged closures, while limited attendance at its parks in Florida has weighed on the company. Internationally, Disneyland Paris was forced to close again late last month when France imposed a new lockdown, though the company's theme parks in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo remain open.

Outlook - Worst haul in decades

The only major Thanksgiving title arriving in movie theaters this year is DreamWorks' (NASDAQ:CMCSA) The Croods: A New Age. At best, the film could reach between $10M-$15M during its first five days, said Doug Stone, president of Box Office Analyst. Comparing that to the last decade, the five-day Thanksgiving spread - consisting of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through Sunday - has resulted in more than $230M in ticket sales each year. The annual box office is already a fraction of what it was last year, tumbling more than 77% to $2.18B. Since August, when major theater chains reopened, through Nov. 22, the box office has only collected $279M (during the same period last year, the box office brought in $2.86B).
    
What else is happening...

Delta (NYSE:DAL) launches first quarantine-free, COVID-free travel to Europe.
Drones come to Wall Street via pandemic dealmaking.
Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) in advanced talks to buy Slack (NYSE:WORK) - WSJ.
Fintech crackdown has Ant Group (NYSE:BABA) explore capital injections.
ByteDance (BDNCE) gets another week to sell TikTok's U.S. business.
    
Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +0.4%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China +1.1%. India -0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude -0.9% to $45.31. Gold +0.4% at $1812.20. Bitcoin -2.6% to $16891.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 0.86%

Today's Economic Calendar

4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet